Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-09-30
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.037. down 0.058 over the period, from 0.095. Range 0.030 to 0.175. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.044	59	59
0.045	9	68
0.056	123	191
0.089	10	201
0.100	10	211
0.101	12	223
0.118	145	368
0.119	30	398
0.120	14	412
0.124	45	457
0.125	50	507
0.126	8	515

Spread0.014Mid0.037

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.030	200	200
0.027	30	230
0.025	124	354
0.020	112	466
0.013	40	506
0.012	34	540
0.011	57	597
0.010	340	937
0.003	157	1,094
0.002	55	1,149
0.001	6,914	8,063

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.970	200	200
0.973	30	230
0.975	124	354
0.980	112	466
0.987	40	506
0.988	34	540
0.989	57	597
0.990	340	937
0.997	157	1,094
0.998	55	1,149
0.999	6,914	8,063

Spread0.014Mid0.963

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.956	59	59
0.955	9	68
0.944	123	191
0.911	10	201
0.900	10	211
0.899	12	223
0.882	145	368
0.881	30	398
0.880	14	412
0.876	45	457
0.875	50	507
0.874	8	515

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
molodoyy	Yes	839.3
1ntothemoon	Yes	708.49
donthackme	Yes	200.66
rocky42024	Yes	128.81
Numitus1994	Yes	123.72
LornaPredicts	Yes	116
0x45e6Df48cCF5d1773D509C97052F819690cEC078-1782111207998	Yes	105
makemerich2026	Yes	100
CHEEKYGUY	Yes	79.25
0x8c9f…46af	Yes	60
0x791aEE614dE1eF53A5949d8AA85FB68151E140b9-1780495640355	Yes	48.93
Degovnerd	Yes	41.67
graynotebook19	Yes	39
0xaEf6E182A349C066c866AB3C47f23f7cd150118D-1775607067535	Yes	34.9
HerrieDavis	Yes	30
tradetosurvive1	Yes	25
AJSV	Yes	23.86
teamok	Yes	23.72
mustbethewater	Yes	23.33
PPMT	Yes	23.28

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
06:14:00	SELL	Yes	0.03	19	$0.58
04:19:21	SELL	Yes	0.04	50	$2.00
04:10:15	SELL	Yes	0.05	15	$0.75
03:30:45	SELL	Yes	0.07	20	$1.40
03:30:45	BUY	No	0.91	27	$24.79
03:30:42	BUY	No	0.9029152422	140	$126.77
03:30:42	BUY	No	0.9	21	$18.90
03:30:42	BUY	No	0.9	40	$36.00
03:24:47	SELL	Yes	0.1	26	$2.58
03:15:41	BUY	No	0.9	2	$1.97
03:15:32	BUY	Yes	0.1199999513	16	$1.97
03:15:24	BUY	No	0.9	13	$11.88
03:15:24	BUY	No	0.8925701692	40	$36.04
02:29:54	BUY	No	0.8895407407	14	$12.01
02:29:53	BUY	No	0.86	10	$8.60
02:29:53	BUY	No	0.85647	10	$8.56
02:26:59	BUY	No	0.85	10	$8.50
02:26:57	BUY	No	0.85	40	$34.00
02:26:56	BUY	No	0.85	10	$8.50
02:26:56	SELL	Yes	0.15	20	$3.00
02:26:56	BUY	No	0.85	29	$24.65
02:26:56	BUY	No	0.85	40	$34.00
02:26:56	BUY	No	0.85	40	$34.00
02:26:54	BUY	No	0.84	40	$33.60
00:38:24	BUY	No	0.85	40	$34.00