8dcc906a9b
0xdbd028b4afcb6fe1e30c55fb65f59a1133d58c1c
- Realised P&L
- $-53.4k
- Volume
- $1.74M
- Markets traded
- 204
- Open portfolio
- $9.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded204
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.424Will Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 200B HKD?
- +$1.2kat 0.166US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$1.1kat 0.137Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
- +$818.08at 0.494Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?
- +$616.55at 0.244US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 01:15 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.1206451472 | $55.39 |
| 09-17 01:14 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.0899133887 | $12.46 |
| 09-17 00:46 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.1236979969 | $40.14 |
| 09-17 00:37 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.111459854 | $30.54 |
| 09-17 00:37 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.121989258 | $18.40 |
| 09-17 00:33 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.1206198347 | $29.19 |
| 09-17 00:18 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $81.00 |
| 09-17 00:17 | Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.296541555 | $16.59 |
| 09-17 00:13 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $1.40 |
| 09-17 00:13 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.0974537526 | $30.28 |
| 09-17 00:13 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.157026662 | $122.09 |
| 09-17 00:12 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.1307042733 | $17.68 |
| 09-16 17:40 | Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.13 |
| 09-16 17:32 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.3815789474 | $72.50 |
| 09-16 17:32 | Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.059643038 | $11.78 |