Stupendous-Innerstate
0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da
- Realised P&L
- $102.3k
- Volume
- $3.32M
- Markets traded
- 1,120
- Open portfolio
- $78.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,120
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration7.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.3kat 0.561Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$5.6kat 0.289Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
- +$4.8kat 0.572Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?
- +$4.6kat 0.994Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
- +$4.5kat 0.290Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:04 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $376.39 |
| 09-17 19:03 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7663917375 | $523.14 |
| 09-17 14:16 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.4936923174 | $863.47 |
| 09-17 14:12 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.147446511 | $140.24 |
| 09-17 14:12 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5010976609 | $629.62 |
| 09-17 11:09 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.3039648929 | $264.42 |
| 09-17 04:21 | Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $184.50 |
| 09-16 22:46 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $63.94 |
| 09-16 19:12 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.5016897483 | $1.3k |
| 09-16 19:05 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.2909523132 | $531.85 |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $9.60 |
| 09-16 17:58 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.87 | $870.00 |
| 09-16 17:57 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.4038998532 | $49.53 |
| 09-16 17:57 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.6055735 | $121.11 |
| 09-16 16:00 | Will any other model be the best AI model on September 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.1312371644 | $31.82 |