PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

johnthek

0xd925e4f45a530beedb8852bb4eb901518215f36f

Realised P&L
$-1.8k
Volume
$447.8k
Markets traded
4,771
Open portfolio
$3.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded4,771
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration3.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? · No0.9400.966$965.50+$25.50
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.9200.961$961.00+$41.00
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · No0.8200.945$176.37+$23.33
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5290.665$124.37+$25.49
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? · Yes0.5170.545$71.48+$3.72
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? · No0.9020.916$48.28+$0.74
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.2640.245$46.11$3.63
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? · No0.5470.785$40.27+$12.20
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1670.200$36.91+$6.15
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · Yes0.4700.735$34.04+$12.27
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5460.615$32.26+$3.61
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.7460.870$30.02+$4.29
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · No0.5100.665$29.86+$6.96
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.6390.715$29.24+$3.12
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.2570.092$23.37$41.92

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 22:46Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ETBUY0.56$2.80
09-17 22:35Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ETBUY0.58$2.90
09-17 22:25Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ETBUY0.64$3.20
09-17 22:10Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ETBUY0.64$3.20
09-17 21:55Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ETBUY0.49$2.45
09-17 21:35Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ETBUY0.54$2.70
09-17 21:10Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ETBUY0.67$3.35
09-17 20:55Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ETBUY0.53$2.65
09-17 20:52Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ETBUY0.57$2.85
09-17 20:20Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ETBUY0.7$3.50
09-17 20:05Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ETBUY0.57$2.85
09-17 20:00Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ETBUY0.68$3.40
09-17 19:40Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ETBUY0.61$3.05
09-17 19:35Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ETBUY0.54$2.70
09-17 19:12Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?BUY0.19$14.95