sunnynotbunny
0x4d024ca7cc33791eb197285f685dbfc3a0fe2ad3
- Realised P&L
- $-27.3k
- Volume
- $458.8k
- Markets traded
- 2,915
- Open portfolio
- $11.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,915
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.3kat 0.493Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?
- +$3.2kat 0.504Bitcoin Up or Down on July 15?
- +$2.0kat 0.450Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?
- +$1.7kat 0.430Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
- +$1.7kat 0.427Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:04 | Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson? | BUY | 0.29 | $17.40 |
| 11-01 18:47 | Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 26? | BUY | 0.25 | $37.10 |
| 11-01 18:16 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000? | BUY | 0.1625588717 | $8.80 |
| 11-01 18:01 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000? | BUY | 0.1699063478 | $8.70 |
| 11-01 18:00 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be 4,000,000 or more? | BUY | 0.8149999959 | $18.00 |
| 11-01 15:17 | Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999985 | $49.30 |
| 11-01 14:48 | Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.64 | $35.20 |
| 11-01 14:21 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 10%-15%? | BUY | 0.46 | $18.63 |
| 11-01 14:20 | Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.58 | $25.53 |
| 11-01 13:31 | Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.65 | $33.14 |
| 11-01 10:42 | Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4399999883 | $12.00 |
| 11-01 09:40 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 15%-20%? | BUY | 0.5499999993 | $39.00 |
| 11-01 09:38 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | SELL | 0.8764893964 | $53.73 |
| 11-01 09:35 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WY-AL House election by 30%-35%? | SELL | 0.89 | $18.13 |
| 11-01 07:35 | Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting? | BUY | 0.8199999984 | $72.00 |