sunnynotbunny
0x4d024ca7cc33791eb197285f685dbfc3a0fe2ad3
- Realised P&L
- $-27.2k
- Volume
- $398.5k
- Markets traded
- 2,385
- Open portfolio
- $3.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,385
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration11.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.3kat 0.493Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?
- +$3.2kat 0.504Bitcoin Up or Down on July 15?
- +$3.0kat 0.479Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
- +$3.0kat 0.478Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
- +$2.3kat 0.513Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 22:24 | Will Linke win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.1842487271 | $22.00 |
| 09-17 07:01 | Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999942 | $20.00 |
| 09-17 05:53 | Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | BUY | 0.219182449 | $30.00 |
| 09-17 05:37 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999966 | $20.00 |
| 09-16 19:57 | Will SER hold 62-64 French Senate seats after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.2609771491 | $30.00 |
| 09-16 19:41 | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $30.00 |
| 09-16 19:23 | Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%? | BUY | 0.3399999966 | $30.00 |
| 09-16 19:08 | Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? | BUY | 0.2978630708 | $30.00 |
| 09-16 18:56 | Will Branislav Becík win the 2026 Nitra Region gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.7599999944 | $60.00 |
| 09-16 18:37 | Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.66 | $36.96 |
| 09-16 18:36 | Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins? | SELL | 0.4 | $18.44 |
| 09-16 17:21 | Will CAQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.6199999964 | $17.00 |
| 09-16 16:05 | Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.712871286 | $30.00 |
| 09-16 12:57 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by September 30? | BUY | 0.395154631 | $74.00 |
| 09-16 12:04 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $62.15 |