PolyBot

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Traders

sunnynotbunny

0x4d024ca7cc33791eb197285f685dbfc3a0fe2ad3

Realised P&L
$-27.3k
Volume
$458.8k
Markets traded
2,915
Open portfolio
$11.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-5.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded2,915
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration6.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? · Yes0.4900.590$349.87+$59.30
Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election? · Yes0.3900.420$249.06+$17.79
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October? · Yes0.4410.900$195.86+$99.86
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%? · No0.4250.600$165.18+$48.18
Will PJT Partners (PJT) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes0.7000.730$160.57+$6.57
Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? · Yes0.8490.988$149.11+$20.94
Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $135.5? · Yes0.2700.745$146.24+$93.24
Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1? · No0.7540.974$143.43+$32.43
NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 adjusted gross margin 73% to 75%? · Yes0.5300.805$138.22+$47.22
Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $134? · Yes0.4900.820$133.88+$53.88
Will Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth be above 1%? · No0.7000.725$133.61+$4.61
McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%? · Yes0.4220.630$129.74+$42.74
Will the Democratic Party control the Arizona Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.3520.745$126.90+$66.90
Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Peru this month? · No0.7600.983$126.76+$28.76
Will Booking (BKNG) Q3 gross bookings be above $55B? · No0.8120.825$123.97+$1.97

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 22:04Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson?BUY0.29$17.40
11-01 18:47Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 26?BUY0.25$37.10
11-01 18:16Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?BUY0.1625588717$8.80
11-01 18:01Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?BUY0.1699063478$8.70
11-01 18:00Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be 4,000,000 or more?BUY0.8149999959$18.00
11-01 15:17Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?BUY0.3599999985$49.30
11-01 14:48Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.64$35.20
11-01 14:21Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?BUY0.46$18.63
11-01 14:20Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.58$25.53
11-01 13:31Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.65$33.14
11-01 10:42Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?BUY0.4399999883$12.00
11-01 09:40Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?BUY0.5499999993$39.00
11-01 09:38Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?SELL0.8764893964$53.73
11-01 09:35Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WY-AL House election by 30%-35%?SELL0.89$18.13
11-01 07:35Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?BUY0.8199999984$72.00