PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

maraya

0xd1c79e931f5556e346ce6b185f95729b8ba274b5

Realised P&L
$-9.5k
Volume
$242.1k
Markets traded
1,101
Open portfolio
$3.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,101
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration29.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration13.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.3520.330$442.32−$30.17
Will Austria win 2026-27 Nations League Group B3? · Yes0.8870.860$383.19−$11.87
No one announced as next James Bond? · No0.7510.734$363.03−$8.24
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.5540.662$250.07+$40.99
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? · No0.8530.855$139.25+$0.28
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond? · Yes0.0830.048$130.64−$98.42
Will Italy win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1? · Yes0.3740.105$109.83−$281.53
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.4310.365$97.92−$17.80
Will Azerbaijan win 2026-27 Nations League Group D2? · Yes0.3700.790$78.21+$41.61
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.6350.615$74.92−$2.40
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No0.8700.865$70.06−$0.41
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.1480.110$65.77−$22.69
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.3680.394$65.26+$4.24
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? · No0.9300.880$59.06−$3.36
Will Belgium win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1? · No0.8500.980$58.80+$7.80

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-11 08:16Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ETBUY0.5899999664$2.28
10-11 08:16Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ETBUY0.5899999546$2.08
10-11 08:16Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ETBUY0.5899998137$1.14
10-11 07:52Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-13?BUY0.269999996$10.11
10-11 07:31Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-12?BUY0.4399999748$4.89
10-11 07:30Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-10-11?BUY0.3799999787$4.64
10-11 07:30Will Everton FC win on 2026-10-11?BUY0.4699999962$4.90
10-11 07:29Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?BUY0.6299999876$30.89
10-11 06:16Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ETBUY0.7299999037$1.44
10-11 05:54Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ETBUY0.96$1.92
10-11 05:31Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ETBUY0.5999998966$1.16
10-11 05:17Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ETBUY0.9399999798$1.86
10-11 05:11Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?BUY0.1899999981$1.95
10-11 04:26Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ETBUY0.8799998044$1.80
10-11 02:48Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?SELL0.16$5.65