0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05
0xe234959595e01dacd391a9502a6ad0edf4e3304a
- Realised P&L
- $183.4k
- Volume
- $29.67M
- Markets traded
- 638
- Open portfolio
- $165.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded638
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$58.9kat 0.906US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$32.4kat 0.886Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$31.0kat 0.171Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$29.8kat 0.014Will Navi Pillay win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$28.7kat 0.875Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:46 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.2k |
| 11-01 17:45 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | BUY | 0.0330814109 | $120.71 |
| 11-01 17:45 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | BUY | 0.0203412287 | $63.49 |
| 11-01 17:44 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1? | BUY | 0.0073163629 | $28.39 |
| 11-01 17:42 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $416.30 |
| 11-01 17:42 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $4.2k |
| 11-01 17:36 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $3.2k |
| 11-01 17:36 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $2.9k |
| 11-01 03:56 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $8.2k |
| 11-01 03:56 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $7.3k |
| 11-01 02:06 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election by 0%-10%? | BUY | 0.128875 | $6.19 |
| 11-01 01:19 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | SELL | 0.0543739381 | $41.28 |
| 11-01 00:17 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.23 | $25.3k |
| 10-31 23:36 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.13 | $520.00 |
| 10-31 23:36 | Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | SELL | 0.12 | $12.00 |