GollumGekko
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
- Realised P&L
- $297.4k
- Volume
- $33.27M
- Markets traded
- 3,603
- Open portfolio
- $125.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,603
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration28.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.9kat 0.605US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$21.8kat 0.999US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$14.8kat 0.700US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$9.9kat 0.500Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$9.9kat 0.477US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 13:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.0260508943 | $61.42 |
| 11-01 12:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1298314739 | $38.52 |
| 10-31 21:47 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $23.42 |
| 10-31 21:23 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? | SELL | 0.0335024641 | $33.58 |
| 10-31 21:23 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0018115918 | $36.64 |
| 10-31 21:22 | Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.21 | $105.00 |
| 10-31 21:22 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.9760757202 | $383.88 |
| 10-31 21:21 | Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.13 | $8.19 |
| 10-31 21:19 | Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | SELL | 0.74 | $148.00 |
| 10-31 21:19 | Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.1486406083 | $209.15 |
| 10-31 21:18 | Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0190104495 | $5.73 |
| 10-31 21:15 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $353.98 |
| 10-31 21:14 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.1584159142 | $92.46 |
| 10-31 20:36 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.153 | $22.89 |
| 10-31 20:36 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.1310174192 | $54.00 |