GollumGekko
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
- Realised P&L
- $283.0k
- Volume
- $31.09M
- Markets traded
- 3,407
- Open portfolio
- $252.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,407
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.9kat 0.605US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$21.8kat 0.999US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$14.8kat 0.700US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$9.9kat 0.500Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$9.9kat 0.477US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 19:28 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $5.83 |
| 09-16 16:45 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | SELL | 0.24 | $84.75 |
| 09-16 10:48 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $55.16 |
| 09-16 06:57 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.25 | $25.00 |
| 09-16 06:57 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $35.28 |
| 09-16 06:48 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.41 | $391.14 |
| 09-16 05:06 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $1.6k |
| 09-15 15:35 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | SELL | 0.9731621636 | $1.3k |
| 09-15 13:49 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.21 | $336.11 |
| 09-15 13:40 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $759.46 |
| 09-15 13:21 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.019 | $3.28 |
| 09-15 10:17 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.93 | $465.00 |
| 09-14 21:23 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.2115200089 | $475.97 |
| 09-14 20:17 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $460.00 |
| 09-14 20:14 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.1221743149 | $260.43 |