PolyBot

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Traders

GollumGekko

0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f

Realised P&L
$283.0k
Volume
$31.09M
Markets traded
3,407
Open portfolio
$252.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded3,407
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration9.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9210.935$20.0k+$304.56
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes0.8340.945$13.3k+$1.6k
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yes0.6010.655$9.9k+$805.28
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5190.779$9.6k+$3.2k
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7450.855$9.5k+$1.2k
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.7230.735$8.3k+$137.14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No0.5920.625$8.2k+$424.11
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.9720.974$7.0k+$11.31
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · No0.8480.945$6.7k+$690.80
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.8750.885$6.5k+$70.14
US recession by end of 2026? · No0.8110.895$6.2k+$583.43
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.9170.948$6.2k+$204.02
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · No0.7090.705$5.5k$27.26
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · Yes0.6251.000$4.9k+$1.8k
No one announced as next James Bond? · No0.7680.781$4.7k+$78.15

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 19:28US recession by end of 2026?BUY0.88$5.83
09-16 16:45Iran full airspace closure by December 31?SELL0.24$84.75
09-16 10:48Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?BUY0.64$55.16
09-16 06:57Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?SELL0.25$25.00
09-16 06:57Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?BUY0.63$35.28
09-16 06:48US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?BUY0.41$391.14
09-16 05:06US recession by end of 2026?BUY0.83$1.6k
09-15 15:35US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?SELL0.9731621636$1.3k
09-15 13:49Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?SELL0.21$336.11
09-15 13:40Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?SELL0.15$759.46
09-15 13:21US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?SELL0.019$3.28
09-15 10:17Iran full airspace closure by September 30?BUY0.93$465.00
09-14 21:23Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?SELL0.2115200089$475.97
09-14 20:17Iran full airspace closure by September 30?BUY0.92$460.00
09-14 20:14Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.1221743149$260.43