PolyBot

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Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-10-01

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.004. down 0.012 over the period, from 0.015. Range 0.004 to 0.018. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0045050
0.005630680
0.014100780
0.0159790
0.01679869
0.01861929
0.0301,3602,290
0.035102,300
0.036352,335
0.085752,410
0.086152,425
0.093702,495

Spread0.001Mid0.004

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.003333333
0.0028051,138
0.00113,54114,679

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.997333333
0.9988051,138
0.99913,54114,679

Spread0.001Mid0.996

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9965050
0.995630680
0.986100780
0.9859790
0.98479869
0.98261929
0.9701,3602,290
0.965102,300
0.964352,335
0.915752,410
0.914152,425
0.907702,495

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
50centsYes1,351.09
Numitus1994Yes630.45
hammerstakYes306.51
0xDe289Ba666E7bb7c74C65aE0a03c9f78d91C2115-1766943170171Yes261
GarmonboziaYes245.1
FrankyFourFingersYes200
LornaPredictsYes110
843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734.Yes100
Tekno-La.GeeSySYes98.28
pootytherewardfarmerYes88
cry.eth2Yes87.55
85sdfYes81.35
AJSVYes80.23
LavinceyYes80
planktonXDYes76.24
xiaoaojiangYes70
wozaitaibeiYes65
human.beanYes55.61
a5533Yes50
0x06d898dd11C4c1ffcA1F91c2c47f6E379b4C9446-1776245316934Yes45

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
20:27:01SELLYes0.005106$0.53
15:12:40BUYNo0.99550$49.35
02:53:54BUYNo0.98749$47.97
10:25:03BUYNo0.98730$29.61
10:25:03BUYNo0.98724$23.72
10:25:03BUYNo0.987136$134.23
10:25:03BUYNo0.98725$24.68
13:12:42BUYNo0.98633$32.29
16:34:54BUYNo0.98470$68.65
13:29:12BUYNo0.98359$57.83
13:06:06BUYNo0.98364$63.37
09:48:07SELLYes0.01745$0.77
09:48:04SELLYes0.0175$0.09
09:47:46BUYNo0.982121$119.04
10:18:01BUYNo0.984575346450$49.20
10:18:01BUYNo0.98420$19.71
10:18:00BUYNo0.98430$29.52
09:17:24SELLNo0.97950$48.95
09:17:19SELLNo0.979100$97.90
09:17:15SELLNo0.97965$63.63
09:17:10SELLNo0.979100$97.90
09:17:06SELLNo0.97937537580$78.35
09:12:31BUYNo0.98620$19.75
09:12:31BUYNo0.98610$9.86
09:12:10SELLNo0.9850$49.00