PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Numitus1994

0xa815f590e64fa64d417df72c581a32f5ff449cbe

Realised P&L
$-25.5k
Volume
$8.18M
Markets traded
19,512
Open portfolio
$12.8k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded19,512
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration7.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes0.7900.994$90.41+$18.52
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30? · Yes0.0630.055$52.79$7.65
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-12 House election by 25%-35%? · Yes0.0030.159$49.64+$48.55
Will Újpest FC be relegated from the 2026-27 NB I (Hungary)? · Yes0.0500.460$46.46+$41.41
Will Puka Nacua finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receiving touchdowns? · Yes0.0920.085$34.68$3.06
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · Yes0.0820.070$34.11$6.33
Will Aid Ávila Covarrubias win the 2027 San Luis Potosí Governor Election? · Yes0.0900.091$33.44+$0.45
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0820.082$32.96$0.15
Will Alibaba (including Alibaba-ATH) have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.0860.095$32.47+$3.13
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31? · Yes0.0740.048$30.46$16.79
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? · Yes0.0920.085$30.26$2.67
Will Pablo Tellez reach the Final of the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? · Yes0.0900.295$29.80+$20.70
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? · Yes0.0830.075$28.55$3.12
Will Rashid Shaheed have 99.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · No0.0800.684$28.06+$24.76
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? · Yes0.0890.105$27.28+$4.05

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 01:34Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NV-01 House election by 10%-15%?BUY0.12$2.52
09-17 01:14Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?BUY0.06$1.26
09-17 00:35Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-07 House election by 20%-25%?BUY0.11$2.31
09-17 00:17Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?BUY0.12$2.54
09-16 23:04Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 21, 2026?BUY0.12$1.10
09-16 23:00Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-04 House election by 15%-20%?BUY0.11$2.31
09-16 22:55Will Atlanta Falcons advance to the NFC Championship Game in the 2027 NFL Playoffs?BUY0.06$1.26
09-16 22:31Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WY-AL House election by 45%-50%?BUY0.12$2.52
09-16 21:56Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2026?BUY0.12$2.52
09-16 21:39StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.12$6.12
09-16 21:29Will XRP reach $3.00 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.072$1.41
09-16 20:46Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-06 House election by 30%-35%?BUY0.12$2.52
09-16 20:15Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be 250,000 or more?BUY0.09$1.89
09-16 20:10Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.0675020792$6.82
09-16 19:55Israel military action against Lebanon on September 17?BUY0.1$1.60