PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Numitus1994

0xa815f590e64fa64d417df72c581a32f5ff449cbe

Realised P&L
$-18.7k
Volume
$7.01M
Markets traded
10,232
Open portfolio
$6.3k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded10,232
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration9.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · Yes0.0980.089$114.49$10.97
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0850.085$68.34+$0.00
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in July? · Yes0.0750.075$40.06+$0.05
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0790.094$37.83+$6.04
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · No0.0700.345$35.18+$28.04
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Yes0.0480.045$34.77$1.73
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1000.085$34.17$6.03
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? · Yes0.0470.037$30.15$8.04
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? · No0.0730.066$26.72$2.96
Will the Republican Party win the IL-08 House seat? · Yes0.0720.065$26.52$3.06
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes0.0800.065$26.13$6.03
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.0650.065$25.79$0.10
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-01 House seat? · No0.0600.060$24.48+$0.00
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? · Yes0.0530.048$23.94$2.97
Will the Republican Party win the CA-25 House seat? · Yes0.0700.055$22.44$6.12

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 23:12Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?SELL0.444$9.32
08-02 23:12Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?SELL0.029$4.74
08-02 23:11Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?SELL0.031$1.64
08-02 23:11Will the Democratic Party win the MD-04 House seat?SELL0.029$5.80
08-02 23:05Will the Democratic Party win the CT-04 House seat?SELL0.04$2.04
08-02 23:04Will the San Jose Sharks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?SELL0.022$0.82
08-02 23:02Will DeepSeek be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?SELL0.03$1.26
08-02 23:02Will Baidu be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?SELL0.04$1.68
08-02 22:43Will Google be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?SELL0.001$0.06
08-02 20:55Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in August?BUY0.047$1.15
08-02 17:29Will Caitlin Clark win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?BUY0.1194117647$6.09
08-02 12:34Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 0.5%?BUY0.1$5.10
08-02 11:23Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?BUY0.09$4.59
08-02 08:05Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig?BUY0.1169402935$3.51
08-02 07:17Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 in August?BUY0.07$1.47