PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

LornaPredicts

0x74957ea27ac4fbdee46d861fdae357859ff67fcf

Realised P&L
$28.0k
Volume
$26.03M
Markets traded
102,240
Open portfolio
$139.3k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded102,240
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
CautionProfit concentration34.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration5.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? · No0.1290.940$1.1k+$953.00
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? · Yes0.0380.952$914.74+$877.65
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? · No0.1760.845$869.89+$688.67
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? · No0.2390.940$773.33+$576.95
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? · No0.2890.920$765.70+$525.33
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? · No0.2800.870$672.96+$456.38
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No0.1310.790$559.08+$466.07
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.3400.695$490.57+$250.58
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? · No0.2400.835$486.81+$346.88
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7400.825$457.88+$47.17
Natural Disaster in 2026? · No0.1220.965$424.05+$370.51
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · No0.1500.515$375.95+$266.45
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? · Yes0.0200.465$372.00+$356.00
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.0300.440$369.25+$343.97
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.1600.961$349.62+$291.38

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 21:24McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 0% to 1%?BUY0.25$5.00
11-01 20:33Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.1$10.00
11-01 20:17Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?SELL0.106$2.54
11-01 20:17Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.1$10.00
11-01 19:55Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.1$10.00
11-01 19:33Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.101$0.02
11-01 19:14Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.101$1.82
11-01 18:36Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 6% or more?BUY0.08$1.60
11-01 17:29Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?BUY0.48$9.60
11-01 17:10Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?BUY0.113$2.26
11-01 17:05Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?SELL0.11$3.30
11-01 15:20Will T1 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?SELL0.135$13.50
11-01 13:59Will T1 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?SELL0.153$15.30
11-01 12:51Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?BUY0.08$1.60
11-01 12:37Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?BUY0.08$1.60