hammerstak
0x58734d549e1e4bc3b6f5197e9ed58321a583db3f
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $26.7k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $1.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)13.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers? · Yes | 0.404 | 0.004 | $1.07 | −$122.67 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.82 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will a hurricane form by May 31? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.47at 0.180Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
- +$1.46at 0.159Trump out as President before 2027?
- +$-4.16at 0.080Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
- +$-7.78at 0.450Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
- +$-14.56at 0.180Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 02:25 | Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.22 |
| 05-10 18:44 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | BUY | 0.1 | $8.82 |
| 04-29 19:30 | Crude Oil all time high by April 30? | SELL | 0.0021416263 | $9.60 |
| 04-11 23:19 | Crude Oil all time high by April 30? | BUY | 0.087808316 | $393.70 |
| 04-11 23:18 | Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $20.00 |
| 04-11 23:16 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | BUY | 0.0349999983 | $20.00 |
| 04-11 23:15 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | BUY | 0.0151104127 | $10.00 |
| 04-11 23:13 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $443.70 |
| 04-02 03:01 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $71.02 |
| 04-01 05:26 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.003 | $3.22 |
| 04-01 05:25 | Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers? | SELL | 0.6295747052 | $67.80 |
| 03-28 16:12 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $80.73 |
| 03-27 23:44 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | SELL | 0.2493718186 | $80.74 |
| 03-24 04:46 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1593736164 | $371.22 |
| 03-23 15:36 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | BUY | 0.1297253933 | $200.00 |