PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

human.bean

0x39fd921acf9be28b17a422bf624dc6b30685849e

Realised P&L
$-36.9k
Volume
$7.24M
Markets traded
19,488
Open portfolio
$1.4k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded19,488
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
BlockerProfit concentration81.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration8.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? · Yes0.2790.515$86.13+$39.54
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? · Yes0.5000.960$76.34+$36.56
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? · Yes0.3160.355$63.10+$6.89
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? · Yes0.1000.895$54.49+$48.40
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0620.771$50.35+$46.27
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? · Yes0.1430.778$45.07+$36.80
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? · Yes0.3010.235$36.26$10.12
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? · Yes0.1700.790$35.11+$27.55
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers? · Yes0.1430.987$34.55+$29.55
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.0670.509$21.97+$19.09
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.5300.635$21.53+$3.56
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1600.00 at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.2720.475$19.59+$8.38
Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? · Yes0.0590.165$18.36+$11.82
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes0.0281.000$17.98+$17.48
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? · Yes0.1250.915$16.92+$14.61

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-11 16:01Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?SELL0.126$2.52
08-11 16:01Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?SELL0.83$55.20
08-11 16:00Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?SELL0.61$100.98
08-11 15:59Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?SELL0.18$3.73
08-11 15:59Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?SELL0.12$12.93
08-11 15:59Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?SELL0.67$100.50
08-11 15:59Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?SELL0.19$21.29
08-11 15:59Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?SELL0.13$7.92
07-09 16:12Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?SELL0.7743294305$477.48
06-06 05:30Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL0.6$70.27
06-06 05:29Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL0.405$90.62
06-06 05:29Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?SELL0.48$63.84
05-31 06:06Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?SELL0.65$4.55
05-31 06:05Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat?SELL0.83$83.00
05-31 06:05Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?SELL0.001$0.23