Lavincey
0x1cdd071bb612de6d66d0c882b676c663697de595
- Realised P&L
- $63.9k
- Volume
- $36.18M
- Markets traded
- 99,280
- Open portfolio
- $8.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded99,280
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- ClearProfit concentration22.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.5kat 0.012Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$12.9kat 0.020Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$10.4kat 0.003US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$10.2kat 0.011Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$9.7kat 0.189Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 07:49 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | SELL | 0.6325967057 | $98.32 |
| 08-25 07:49 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.948 | $105.16 |
| 08-25 07:49 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.93 | $138.59 |
| 08-25 07:48 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.987 | $147.88 |
| 08-25 07:48 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $153.35 |
| 08-25 07:48 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $176.72 |
| 08-25 07:48 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.961 | $181.97 |
| 08-25 07:48 | UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? | SELL | 0.9462541483 | $272.02 |
| 07-14 16:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $258.64 |
| 07-05 20:40 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.2k |
| 07-05 20:17 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.21 | $106.47 |
| 07-05 20:10 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.19737765 | $789.51 |
| 06-26 05:49 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 28? | BUY | 0.7 | $8.40 |
| 06-26 05:49 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.24 |
| 06-26 05:48 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 26? | BUY | 0.66 | $13.86 |