PolyBot

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Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
None on this market
Ends
2027-01-01

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.48. down 0.01 over the period, from 0.49. Range 0.47 to 0.52. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.5255
0.561217
0.581834
0.6194128
0.6255183
0.6385268
0.6418286
0.6550336
0.6625361
0.6720381
0.68135516
0.6935551

Spread0.07Mid0.48

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.457676
0.4359135
0.4283218
0.40102320
0.30100420
0.2550470
0.19100570
0.175575
0.1640615
0.1530645
0.1310655
0.1110665

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.557676
0.5759135
0.5883218
0.60102320
0.70100420
0.7550470
0.81100570
0.835575
0.8440615
0.8530645
0.8710655
0.8910665

Spread0.07Mid0.52

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.4855
0.441217
0.421834
0.3994128
0.3855183
0.3785268
0.3618286
0.3550336
0.3425361
0.3320381
0.32135516
0.3135551

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
gopfan2Yes8,698.49
DEGENKHANYes6,478.88
0x4e25…d7a7Yes5,008.86
0x8712Yes1,000
aouaouaouYes509.38
GennedyYes438.68
tigerzYes394.87
treadmill4727Yes212.53
ibuycultureYes208.33
hetaczYes200
BTCGambler247Yes200
FlashTradeOracleYes200
0x5219156844fF1cE290dC7F24d687C5386b759781-1780766504920Yes199.93
HechuanYes171.98
Terry241129Yes160.02
0x06d898dd11C4c1ffcA1F91c2c47f6E379b4C9446-1776245316934Yes160
wozaitaibeiYes150
animal.beanYes100
bling-043Yes100
nonejyYes80

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
15:27:30BUYYes0.525$2.60
15:26:37BUYYes0.525$2.60
15:24:09BUYYes0.525$2.60
20:45:46BUYYes0.519999982118$9.30
05:30:34BUYYes0.495$2.45
05:30:06BUYNo0.495$2.45
12:57:19BUYYes0.5399998112$1.20
16:01:21SELLYes0.381$0.20
13:59:24SELLYes0.399$3.54
13:27:09BUYNo0.5230$15.59
00:02:06BUYYes0.512$5.75
16:42:10BUYYes0.52$1.05
13:58:57SELLNo0.4910$4.77
13:42:06SELLNo0.487866666730$14.64
21:34:07BUYYes0.46999987782$1.00
08:50:00BUYYes0.420$0.01
11:32:28BUYYes0.429$3.57
01:24:34SELLYes0.392881002119$7.53
22:35:45SELLNo0.5301468208173$91.72
22:02:36SELLYes0.445$2.27
07:23:04BUYYes0.489999980410$5.00
18:40:46SELLYes0.47159$74.73
18:05:57BUYNo0.5483229036160$87.62
23:57:27SELLYes0.4810$4.80
03:49:03BUYNo0.5510$5.50