0x8712
0xa67685fa5213fd8167977bfb7b3f50c06d511c22
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $4.38M
- Markets traded
- 419
- Open portfolio
- $11.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded419
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.6kat 0.045Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$8.2kat 0.319Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$7.2kat 0.311Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
- +$7.1kat 0.487Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
- +$6.4kat 0.538Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 21:51 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.782 | $1.1k |
| 10-26 21:51 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.82 | $199.24 |
| 10-26 21:50 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.89 | $890.00 |
| 10-26 21:50 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | SELL | 0.90287 | $902.87 |
| 09-25 18:17 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1587632979 | $119.39 |
| 09-25 18:17 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.265 | $53.00 |
| 09-22 18:08 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.93 | $930.00 |
| 09-21 20:03 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $539.99 |
| 09-21 15:39 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $56.42 |
| 09-19 08:44 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | BUY | 0.1099389835 | $68.50 |
| 09-19 00:56 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25? | BUY | 0.21 | $210.00 |
| 09-19 00:42 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.0694485931 | $116.57 |
| 09-19 00:36 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3590712 | $359.07 |
| 09-16 17:49 | Will no one dissent the September Fed decision? | BUY | 0.39 | $62.40 |
| 09-16 17:27 | Will no one dissent the September Fed decision? | BUY | 0.34 | $3.40 |