PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x8712

0xa67685fa5213fd8167977bfb7b3f50c06d511c22

Realised P&L
$-4.0k
Volume
$4.38M
Markets traded
419
Open portfolio
$11.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded419
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration11.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.4680.435$1.7k−$133.16
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · No0.5600.850$1.7k+$580.00
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.8470.850$1.7k+$5.00
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · No0.7000.805$1.4k+$184.49
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.7400.685$685.00−$55.00
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? · No0.4650.275$550.00−$380.00
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · Yes0.3100.505$505.00+$195.00
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? · No0.4100.475$475.00+$65.00
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? · No0.1850.115$458.00−$281.99
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5200.143$430.49−$1.1k
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · No0.1100.365$365.00+$255.00
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? · No0.1830.090$359.97−$371.97
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? · No0.1400.175$350.00+$70.00
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? · Yes0.5540.845$253.50+$87.21
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · Yes0.2200.040$112.96−$508.31

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-26 21:51Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.782$1.1k
10-26 21:51Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?SELL0.82$199.24
10-26 21:50Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?SELL0.89$890.00
10-26 21:50Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?SELL0.90287$902.87
09-25 18:17Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1587632979$119.39
09-25 18:17Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.265$53.00
09-22 18:08Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?SELL0.93$930.00
09-21 20:03Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?BUY0.54$539.99
09-21 15:39Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?BUY0.26$56.42
09-19 08:44Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?BUY0.1099389835$68.50
09-19 00:56Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?BUY0.21$210.00
09-19 00:42Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?BUY0.0694485931$116.57
09-19 00:36Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?BUY0.3590712$359.07
09-16 17:49Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?BUY0.39$62.40
09-16 17:27Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?BUY0.34$3.40