treadmill4727
0x1676160a7c9d3bd7453db60d6c1eb2de893042b7
- Realised P&L
- $-13.51
- Volume
- $6.2k
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $175.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.406 | 0.500 | $106.67 | +$20.07 |
| Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.121 | 0.170 | $60.74 | +$17.61 |
| Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · No | 0.644 | 0.785 | $8.02 | +$1.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.15at 0.330Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- +$0.27at 0.840Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- +$-0.48at 0.054Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- +$-1.00at 0.548Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- +$-1.75at 0.010Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:57 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.98 |
| 09-17 19:45 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $2.34 |
| 09-17 19:00 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.80 |
| 09-15 22:55 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.32 |
| 09-15 22:52 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.48 |
| 09-15 22:13 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.1562441315 | $4.16 |
| 09-15 22:04 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.50 |
| 09-14 13:52 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $2.10 |
| 09-05 18:45 | Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.0600781443 | $5.83 |
| 08-24 16:40 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 09:34 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.17 |
| 08-23 07:25 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.17 |
| 08-20 23:58 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.08 |
| 08-20 19:33 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.62 |
| 08-20 18:24 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.0846310007 | $3.54 |