PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-07-01
Resolves by
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Rewards
50 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.11. down 0.17 over the period, from 0.28. Range 0.04 to 0.32. 49 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.153939
0.255998
0.26200298
0.2720318
0.2810328
0.297335
0.3030365
0.3317382
0.3450432
0.3920452
0.5060512
0.6390602

Spread0.08Mid0.11

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.07140140
0.0414154
0.0350204
0.02138343
0.0133376

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.93140140
0.9614154
0.9750204
0.98138343
0.9933376

Spread0.08Mid0.89

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.853939
0.755998
0.74200298
0.7320318
0.7210328
0.717335
0.7030365
0.6717382
0.6650432
0.6120452
0.5060512
0.3790602

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
AboveLookUpYes247.42
AJSVYes85.05
BAO95889Yes62.02
LonelyScissorsYes58.71
pootytherewardfarmerYes50.5
radeksaturkaYes50
beyond0Yes39.48
0x4629…f3b1Yes30
gfdgfvfvssddYes30
2B9SYes29.43
kannoken0Yes20
ConsensusOfCredibleReportingYes16.8
iutwpfalNo329.84
molodoyyNo244.85
dgfd76No83.03
parameter1No28.17
GuyFromTinderNo20
johnthekNo10.4
superaiapiNo1.65
Welcome2026No1.39

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
23:52:29SELLYes0.15$0.50
23:51:42BUYNo0.845$4.21
23:51:41SELLYes0.15100$15.00
23:15:32BUYYes0.0801315789152$12.18
23:14:11SELLYes0.0439166146112$4.92
22:05:42SELLNo0.9536$34.32
21:34:59SELLYes0.05228$11.40
21:34:59BUYNo0.9550$47.50
18:56:05BUYNo0.9150$45.50
18:56:00BUYNo0.930$27.00
17:52:08BUYNo0.821$16.80
17:52:02BUYNo0.7970$55.18
16:24:21BUYNo0.7929$22.74
16:23:57BUYNo0.7410$7.70
16:23:53BUYNo0.7385$61.94
16:22:14BUYNo0.7354$39.60
16:21:50SELLYes0.2834$9.52
16:21:48BUYNo0.71999990322$1.19
16:21:48BUYNo0.71999994241$1.00
16:21:48BUYNo0.7160$112.00
16:21:47BUYNo0.716516925420$14.40
16:21:47BUYNo0.7123$16.33
06:40:09BUYYes0.2883010515108$31.26
02:52:15SELLNo0.7220$14.40
20:56:36BUYYes0.279999989612$3.24