parameter1
0xae91ec7354e12acb90922e9b7abdf6fc471f0f69
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $88.2k
- Markets traded
- 1,674
- Open portfolio
- $4.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,674
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$233.32at 0.045Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
- +$168.92at 0.468Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
- +$125.29at 0.216Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
- +$105.46at 0.808Will "Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- +$81.96at 0.448Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:32 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.9107142573 | $20.00 |
| 11-01 21:28 | Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999988 | $30.00 |
| 11-01 12:22 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.7799999979 | $15.00 |
| 11-01 12:22 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.37 | $6.60 |
| 11-01 10:06 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5499999954 | $30.00 |
| 11-01 10:02 | Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.5239999853 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 09:57 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.9399999996 | $50.00 |
| 10-31 18:52 | Will Sunderland be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League? | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 12:01 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $5.11 |
| 10-31 11:23 | Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.3738974806 | $13.00 |
| 10-31 11:23 | Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on November 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.9978629718 | $58.69 |
| 10-30 21:56 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.5559471276 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 19:57 | Will "Surviving Hurricane Otis" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.9299999986 | $20.00 |
| 10-30 17:45 | Will "The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.7799999282 | $5.00 |
| 10-30 12:09 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999983 | $10.00 |