PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

iutwpfal

0xb89f5425341719d298dc2f5b9a92374f5fde1c44

Realised P&L
$92.8k
Volume
$4.30M
Markets traded
1,126
Open portfolio
$29.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded1,126
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration26.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration49.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.5000.818$14.7k+$5.7k
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.5000.182$3.3k$5.7k
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yes0.7870.809$1.3k+$35.18
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? · No0.2620.345$1.2k+$291.83
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? · Yes0.0480.880$1.1k+$1.0k
Will Trump deport 400-500k people? · Yes0.1010.640$628.09+$529.15
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026? · No0.3520.420$529.95+$85.18
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · No0.8230.910$524.39+$50.26
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · No0.8140.785$523.19$19.58
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? · No0.7370.840$453.46+$55.87
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? · No0.3390.825$448.40+$264.26
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · No0.7440.899$417.25+$72.03
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · No0.9390.971$376.37+$12.41
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? · No0.6830.845$364.19+$69.75
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · No0.7200.725$339.91+$2.34

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 17:58Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?BUY0.4152522255$279.88
09-16 17:50Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.2815370659$513.61
09-16 17:45Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?BUY0.5024648755$81.54
09-16 15:20Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.4955714286$34.69
09-16 15:20Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.49$95.42
09-16 15:19Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?BUY0.7255784053$499.50
09-15 04:48Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?BUY0.444$2.22
09-15 04:46Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?BUY0.69$3.45
09-15 04:45Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?BUY0.4618518519$124.70
09-15 03:47Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?BUY0.2453333333$5.15
09-15 02:20Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.4628456232$51.66
09-15 02:13Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?BUY0.756278355$139.03
09-14 06:15Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.9389793091$363.96
09-14 03:23Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?BUY0.4378720824$205.80
09-14 02:40Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?BUY0.548485003$279.60