PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

iutwpfal

0xb89f5425341719d298dc2f5b9a92374f5fde1c44

Realised P&L
$98.2k
Volume
$4.15M
Markets traded
1,063
Open portfolio
$9.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded1,063
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration23.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? · No0.8620.880$1.2k+$24.57
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yes0.7450.905$948.57+$167.63
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22? · Yes0.3940.410$772.98+$29.32
Will Trump deport 400-500k people? · Yes0.2410.625$613.37+$376.68
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? · Yes0.0440.455$555.19+$501.78
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? · No0.7370.860$495.37+$71.13
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? · No0.3390.820$445.68+$261.54
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? · Yes0.1970.083$435.31$604.01
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · No0.7440.815$433.29+$37.58
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? · Yes0.9230.930$369.54+$2.88
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · No0.4180.585$344.52+$98.30
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? · No0.6740.650$339.26$12.67
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? · No0.6830.785$338.33+$43.89
Zoe Kravitz and Harry Styles engaged by August 31? · Yes0.5450.905$290.09+$115.25
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? · No0.4150.555$206.41+$52.08

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-03 00:53Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?BUY0.6133002481$7.41
08-03 00:53Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?BUY0.5354225597$323.68
08-02 15:24Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?BUY0.87$252.91
08-02 11:24Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?BUY0.42$44.88
08-02 02:00Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?BUY0.1$9.30
08-02 01:59Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?BUY0.785$9.97
08-02 01:56Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?BUY0.159$0.95
08-02 01:56Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?BUY0.1442361776$95.84
08-02 00:16Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?BUY0.3645454545$80.20
08-02 00:14Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?BUY0.65$62.40
08-01 23:49Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?SELL0.5203412986$415.91
08-01 22:07Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?BUY0.888$4.46
08-01 21:37Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?BUY0.95$9.50
08-01 21:15Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?BUY0.024$24.72
08-01 20:55Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?SELL0.3431948882$107.42