iutwpfal
0xb89f5425341719d298dc2f5b9a92374f5fde1c44
- Realised P&L
- $98.2k
- Volume
- $4.15M
- Markets traded
- 1,063
- Open portfolio
- $9.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,063
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration23.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.242Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
- +$3.3kat 0.795Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026?
- +$3.2kat 0.094Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$3.1kat 0.059Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.360Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 00:53 | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6133002481 | $7.41 |
| 08-03 00:53 | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5354225597 | $323.68 |
| 08-02 15:24 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | BUY | 0.87 | $252.91 |
| 08-02 11:24 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | BUY | 0.42 | $44.88 |
| 08-02 02:00 | Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $9.30 |
| 08-02 01:59 | Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.785 | $9.97 |
| 08-02 01:56 | Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.159 | $0.95 |
| 08-02 01:56 | Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.1442361776 | $95.84 |
| 08-02 00:16 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | BUY | 0.3645454545 | $80.20 |
| 08-02 00:14 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | BUY | 0.65 | $62.40 |
| 08-01 23:49 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.5203412986 | $415.91 |
| 08-01 22:07 | Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.888 | $4.46 |
| 08-01 21:37 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |
| 08-01 21:15 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.024 | $24.72 |
| 08-01 20:55 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3431948882 | $107.42 |