iutwpfal
0xb89f5425341719d298dc2f5b9a92374f5fde1c44
- Realised P&L
- $92.8k
- Volume
- $4.30M
- Markets traded
- 1,126
- Open portfolio
- $29.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,126
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration26.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.8kat 0.359Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
- +$3.5kat 0.244Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
- +$3.3kat 0.795Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026?
- +$3.1kat 0.659Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?
- +$3.1kat 0.094Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 17:58 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4152522255 | $279.88 |
| 09-16 17:50 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2815370659 | $513.61 |
| 09-16 17:45 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5024648755 | $81.54 |
| 09-16 15:20 | Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4955714286 | $34.69 |
| 09-16 15:20 | Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $95.42 |
| 09-16 15:19 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.7255784053 | $499.50 |
| 09-15 04:48 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.444 | $2.22 |
| 09-15 04:46 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 09-15 04:45 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4618518519 | $124.70 |
| 09-15 03:47 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.2453333333 | $5.15 |
| 09-15 02:20 | Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4628456232 | $51.66 |
| 09-15 02:13 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.756278355 | $139.03 |
| 09-14 06:15 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.9389793091 | $363.96 |
| 09-14 03:23 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4378720824 | $205.80 |
| 09-14 02:40 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.548485003 | $279.60 |