BAO95889
0x300c5e1ec9e4d6e8bd9617f0a44508170c5b6a92
- Realised P&L
- $32.9k
- Volume
- $2.59M
- Markets traded
- 1,724
- Open portfolio
- $4.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,724
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.0kat 0.174Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?
- +$1.5kat 0.605Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
- +$1.0kat 0.191Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
- +$990.98at 0.270Will "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?
- +$940.08at 0.378US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:18 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | SELL | 0.26 | $10.40 |
| 11-01 17:09 | Will "Let Me Sell You a Dream" from Musk win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.9815981818 | $10.80 |
| 11-01 17:04 | Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.9536823432 | $115.59 |
| 11-01 17:03 | Will Wildwood win Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.9919222408 | $130.50 |
| 11-01 16:35 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | SELL | 0.29 | $5.80 |
| 11-01 16:34 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.75 |
| 11-01 16:34 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.685 | $27.40 |
| 11-01 16:27 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.23 | $9.20 |
| 11-01 16:26 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.7 | $90.47 |
| 11-01 16:23 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | SELL | 0.79 | $71.10 |
| 11-01 16:23 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 11-01 16:20 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | BUY | 0.18 | $7.20 |
| 11-01 13:59 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.7509416667 | $54.07 |
| 11-01 13:56 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.2780321285 | $13.85 |
| 11-01 13:54 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.3053846154 | $39.70 |