PolyBot

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Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-10-01

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.003. down 0.009 over the period, from 0.011. Range 0.003 to 0.045. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.003100100
0.033100200
0.03415215
0.03530245
0.03730275
0.03895370
0.0407311,101
0.119451,146
0.120201,166
0.122251,191
0.12461,196
0.2711501,346

Spread0.001Mid0.003

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.002605605
0.0014,7825,387

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.998605605
0.9994,7825,387

Spread0.001Mid0.998

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.997100100
0.967100200
0.96615215
0.96530245
0.96330275
0.96295370
0.9607311,101
0.881451,146
0.880201,166
0.878251,191
0.87661,196
0.7291501,346

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
50centsYes736.2
whitebunnyYes179.12
NordforsolaYes148.68
AJSVYes145.58
843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734.Yes100
LaGambasYes93.7
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.Yes91.3
cry.eth2Yes87.55
xiaoaojiangYes65.24
wozaitaibeiYes65
BikesarethebestYes64.68
a5533Yes49.99
huyewellYes49.6
planktonXDYes48
0x06d898dd11C4c1ffcA1F91c2c47f6E379b4C9446-1776245316934Yes45
i2dtYes43.98
0x4ffa…3e2eYes41.61
0x58e80Dd4a5c365BA380795103f5E0963a287bB5A-1781767424338Yes38
human.beanYes31.31
Numitus1994Yes30.64

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
15:12:42BUYNo0.99850$49.50
10:25:03BUYNo0.993136$135.05
10:25:03BUYNo0.99330$29.79
10:25:03BUYNo0.99324$23.84
13:12:42BUYNo0.99333$32.52
10:15:15BUYNo0.9965$4.98
15:18:00BUYNo0.97887$84.70
13:07:07BUYNo0.975$4.85
13:01:39BUYYes0.02350$1.15
10:19:49BUYNo0.9803902439164$160.78
10:19:19BUYNo0.97856$55.25
10:18:04BUYNo0.977999943810$9.30
10:18:04BUYNo0.976999999711$10.27
10:18:01BUYNo0.9630$28.80
10:18:00BUYNo0.970128252749$48.00
09:12:31BUYNo0.98910$9.89
09:12:31BUYNo0.98920$19.81
09:08:58SELLNo0.978180$176.04
09:08:55BUYYes0.012286989353$4.34
04:01:10SELLYes0.01111$0.12
04:01:07BUYNo0.98723$22.70
10:34:10BUYNo0.9930$29.70
10:34:10BUYNo0.9933$32.42
06:02:19SELLYes0.0112$0.02
11:09:13BUYNo0.98910$9.89