Bikesarethebest
0x0a6d26d31b28fd5a84c301f8b27296612f3b1d0a
- Realised P&L
- $390.5k
- Volume
- $22.08M
- Markets traded
- 7,624
- Open portfolio
- $113.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded7,624
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.8kat 0.046Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$10.1kat 0.044US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
- +$10.1kat 0.259Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$8.4kat 0.343Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$7.7kat 0.031Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 12:06 | Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $49.60 |
| 09-15 11:25 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SELL | 0.987 | $8.88 |
| 09-15 11:24 | Will Venezuela become 51st state? | SELL | 0.976 | $48.80 |
| 09-15 11:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $49.75 |
| 09-15 08:40 | Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.935 | $4.68 |
| 09-15 08:07 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | SELL | 0.93 | $46.50 |
| 09-15 07:35 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | SELL | 0.963 | $19.26 |
| 09-15 06:47 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.923 | $24.00 |
| 09-14 21:49 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SELL | 0.935 | $28.05 |
| 09-14 15:30 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.628 | $3.14 |
| 09-14 14:09 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.17 | $8.50 |
| 09-14 11:43 | Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.994 | $49.70 |
| 09-14 11:25 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SELL | 0.986 | $14.79 |
| 09-14 11:23 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | SELL | 0.973 | $48.65 |
| 09-14 11:23 | Will Venezuela become 51st state? | SELL | 0.976 | $48.80 |