PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0x4ffaf611a0149b5c34ecd3b30e0e2a76a7323e2e

Realised P&L
$-128.69
Volume
$139.4k
Markets traded
3,056
Open portfolio
$260.38

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded3,056
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration7.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 9? · Yes0.0451.000$45.29+$43.23
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? · Yes0.0000.675$40.50+$40.50
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 27 be between 86 and 89? · Yes0.1431.000$30.25+$25.93
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? · Yes0.1670.460$27.60+$17.60
Will Hong Kong have 600mm or more of precipitation in July? · Yes0.1001.000$23.69+$21.32
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · Yes0.5000.505$16.66+$0.16
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes0.0000.415$10.38+$10.38
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? · Yes0.0000.185$8.73+$8.73
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers? · Yes0.1430.214$7.60+$2.53
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers? · Yes0.5000.240$7.27$7.88
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers? · Yes0.1430.149$6.20+$0.26
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers? · Yes0.1430.185$6.12+$1.41
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers? · Yes0.1430.194$5.81+$1.53
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 15? · Yes0.0911.000$4.46+$4.05
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 15? · Yes0.0911.000$3.46+$3.15

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-16 00:12Will Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in July?SELL0.08$1.17
07-15 23:32Will Hong Kong have between 575-600mm of precipitation in July?SELL0.1$2.35
07-15 23:32Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in July?SELL0.06$0.60
07-15 06:18Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 15?SELL0.048$0.05
07-14 12:25Will Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in July?SELL0.23$1.15
07-13 23:21Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 14?SELL0.25$1.30
07-13 16:06Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 14?SELL0.22$1.05
07-13 15:51Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 15?SELL0.1$0.05
07-13 08:07Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 15?SELL0.29$1.45
07-12 18:55Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 14?SELL0.12$1.03
07-12 17:28Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 14?SELL0.14$0.24
07-12 17:26Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 14?SELL0.06$0.04
07-12 17:03Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 13?SELL0.08$0.15
07-12 16:42Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 27 be between 89 and 92?SELL0.19$3.99
07-12 16:02Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 14?SELL0.17$0.48