PolyBot

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Will fewer than 950 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-10

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.003. Unchanged over the period, from 0.003. Range 0.003 to 0.003. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.003107107
0.015100207
0.01616223
0.01880303
0.434187490
0.4356351,125
0.4361771,302
0.4381771,479
0.439651,544
0.442651,609
0.791381,647
0.80051,652

Spread0.001Mid0.003

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0027070
0.0014,8114,881

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9987070
0.9994,8114,881

Spread0.001Mid0.998

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.997107107
0.985100207
0.98416223
0.98280303
0.566187490
0.5656351,125
0.5641771,302
0.5621771,479
0.561651,544
0.558651,609
0.209381,647
0.20051,652

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
LornaPredictsYes444.95
0x19b87FaD1d000FBcBB8253513FdeB50a36F30C6C-1774522622992Yes390.51
oddoYes200
cry.eth2Yes186.01
planktonXDYes162
arbitragekingYes123.27
613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.Yes99.99
Crypto-WellYes98
fang1957Yes79.99
dsffdYes73.85
jennylulu2016Yes62
qqqppp-l1Yes56.76
0x06d898dd11C4c1ffcA1F91c2c47f6E379b4C9446-1776245316934Yes55
0x4ffa…3e2eYes47.5
wozaitaibeiYes45
mehanizatorYes40.67
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.Yes38.2
0xd46e…a2baYes33.31
AJSVYes33
datasurferYes30

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
04:09:24BUYNo0.99810$9.98
13:02:48SELLYes0.00220$0.04
22:09:52SELLYes0.0025$0.01
00:19:01SELLYes0.0022$0.00
00:11:33SELLYes0.0020$0.00
00:10:04SELLYes0.0020$0.00
17:50:15BUYNo0.99856$55.89
17:50:13BUYNo0.996714814854$53.82
12:26:28SELLNo0.9822$1.62
12:08:00SELLNo0.9821$1.25
15:05:51SELLYes0.015$0.05
13:52:57BUYNo0.9975$4.99
09:58:48BUYYes0.0128037935391$5.00
17:29:30SELLYes0.00227$0.05
17:26:50SELLYes0.00234$0.07
16:44:05SELLYes0.00213$0.03
08:57:03SELLYes0.00225$0.05
07:25:57BUYNo0.99830$29.94
05:39:38SELLYes0.0027$0.01
11:10:18SELLYes0.0022$0.00
12:09:02BUYNo0.99815$14.97
13:54:58BUYNo0.9988$7.69
11:37:19BUYNo0.99855$54.83
08:12:33BUYNo0.9987$7.35
08:12:33BUYNo0.99820$20.06