Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2026-09-30
Resolves by: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.007. up 0.003 over the period, from 0.004. Range 0.003 to 0.018. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.011	64	64
0.012	1,445	1,509
0.017	217	1,726
0.020	300	2,026
0.040	100	2,126
0.042	40	2,166
0.044	286	2,452
0.046	1,950	4,402
0.047	342	4,744
0.048	1,499	6,243
0.050	100	6,343
0.053	5	6,348

Spread0.007Mid0.007

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.004	86	86
0.003	356	442
0.002	3,111	3,552
0.001	5,371	8,923

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.996	86	86
0.997	356	442
0.998	3,111	3,552
0.999	5,371	8,923

Spread0.007Mid0.992

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.989	64	64
0.988	1,445	1,509
0.983	217	1,726
0.980	300	2,026
0.960	100	2,126
0.958	40	2,166
0.956	286	2,452
0.954	1,950	4,402
0.953	342	4,744
0.952	1,499	6,243
0.950	100	6,343
0.947	5	6,348

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
taerv534	Yes	19,928.39
Wojtek	Yes	4,420.7
fiter	Yes	4,377.46
OnYesYes	Yes	3,131.63
InterestingUser	Yes	2,280.28
leisiyu	Yes	1,444.82
AbsoluteQuagmire	Yes	1,229.68
planktonXD	Yes	1,185.09
ief	Yes	1,148.89
HerrieDavis	Yes	1,040.52
donthackme	Yes	992.28
LornaPredicts	Yes	754.59
0xe4a99E151fEaeBf42456a4d39BbEBf6a89727d91-1761092319141	Yes	672
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yes	669.82
molodoyy	Yes	558.3
cunli	Yes	521
laffett	Yes	520.57
soren.xyz	Yes	515.27
Khbk	Yes	400
zrz101	Yes	351.37

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
13:54:45	SELL	No	0.989	86	$84.80
10:47:06	BUY	No	0.997	40	$39.88
10:47:06	BUY	No	0.997	30	$29.91
10:46:42	BUY	No	0.9965714286	70	$69.76
10:46:41	BUY	No	0.996	20	$19.92
10:46:41	BUY	No	0.996	100	$99.60
03:39:08	BUY	No	0.997	1	$1.48
03:31:42	BUY	No	0.997	2	$1.74
03:31:18	BUY	No	0.997	2	$1.72
03:31:12	BUY	No	0.997	1	$1.31
03:31:06	BUY	No	0.997	2	$1.59
03:22:42	BUY	No	0.997	164	$163.42
02:57:35	SELL	Yes	0.003	89	$0.27
02:24:41	BUY	Yes	0.0112669709	89	$1.00
18:52:59	BUY	Yes	0.0170761446	351	$6.00
18:00:38	SELL	Yes	0.0061073954	1,813	$11.07
12:21:17	BUY	Yes	0.016	125	$2.00
20:02:17	BUY	No	0.995	20	$19.90
19:51:24	BUY	No	0.995	40	$39.80
19:51:24	BUY	No	0.995	100	$99.50
19:51:24	BUY	No	0.995	100	$99.50
19:49:54	BUY	No	0.995	20	$19.90
16:22:51	BUY	No	0.995	84	$83.46
16:22:51	BUY	No	0.995	40	$39.80
16:22:50	BUY	No	0.995	50	$49.75