SnapElectionAvoider
0xb1ca909e848cc24ec4e220ce1c453bc290c51705
- Realised P&L
- $207.5k
- Volume
- $22.20M
- Markets traded
- 3,602
- Open portfolio
- $361.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,602
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$147.5kat 0.028Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- +$58.6kat 0.084Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
- +$23.3kat 0.025Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$21.5kat 0.833US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
- +$19.9kat 0.767Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 00:10 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.60 |
| 11-01 00:02 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio? | BUY | 0.006 | $6.4k |
| 10-31 23:56 | Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.008 | $17.87 |
| 10-31 23:49 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas? | BUY | 0.005 | $72.09 |
| 10-31 23:48 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio? | BUY | 0.005 | $67.10 |
| 10-31 23:45 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Michigan and Texas? | BUY | 0.005 | $32.29 |
| 10-31 23:42 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine? | BUY | 0.006 | $35.49 |
| 10-31 23:42 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine? | BUY | 0.0040551977 | $73.47 |
| 10-31 23:40 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Maine, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.004 | $53.95 |
| 10-31 23:38 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio? | BUY | 0.004 | $56.72 |
| 10-31 23:33 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Michigan? | BUY | 0.003 | $32.06 |
| 10-31 23:26 | Will Republicans win Maine and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.003 | $4.24 |
| 10-31 23:24 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas? | BUY | 0.002 | $29.08 |
| 10-31 23:21 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan? | BUY | 0.002 | $44.93 |
| 10-31 23:16 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Michigan, and Texas? | BUY | 0.002 | $24.40 |