cunli
0x3d285c0fbae6ce97dea62f628512b9337e224696
- Realised P&L
- $0.61
- Volume
- $7.1k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $16.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $13.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.007 | $3.91 | +$1.77 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.26at 0.986Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
- +$1.10at 0.989Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?
- +$0.90at 0.970Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13?
- +$0.27at 0.991Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?
- +$0.19at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 13:56 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $13.00 |
| 09-24 13:50 | Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0041074856 | $2.14 |
| 08-01 11:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.30 |
| 06-08 11:42 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? | BUY | 0.9989999899 | $90.00 |
| 06-02 10:36 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.00 |
| 05-23 08:18 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 23? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.00 |
| 05-19 08:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? | BUY | 0.998 | $89.00 |
| 05-13 10:00 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $89.00 |
| 05-07 12:22 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $89.00 |
| 05-05 06:16 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? | BUY | 0.9979999967 | $89.00 |
| 05-05 06:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? | BUY | 0.003 | $3.00 |
| 04-27 07:16 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $92.00 |
| 04-23 13:08 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 23? | BUY | 0.999 | $91.99 |
| 04-18 09:15 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $91.99 |
| 04-15 09:52 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $91.99 |