AbsoluteQuagmire
0x9870a52d259f6b5d270acdf3408225f9ff3774fd
- Realised P&L
- $517.50
- Volume
- $7.5k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $151.49
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.680 | $67.99 | +$4.00 |
| Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? · Yes | 0.465 | 0.305 | $61.00 | −$32.00 |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.225 | $22.50 | −$5.50 |
| Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.50 |
| Will Rafael Leao join Aston Villa? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.87 |
| Will Rafael Leao stay at AC Milan? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$155.30at 0.559Will Alessandro Bastoni play for Inter Milan next?
- +$126.91at 0.538Will BN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?
- +$75.33at 0.242Will Rafael Leao join Galatasaray?
- +$66.36at 0.010Will Jack Grealish stay at Manchester City?
- +$43.25at 0.940Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 13:42 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.840119494 | $168.03 |
| 09-23 14:30 | Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.398 | $111.44 |
| 09-22 02:46 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.26 |
| 09-22 02:27 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $19.20 |
| 09-22 02:19 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $41.53 |
| 09-01 04:27 | Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal? | SELL | 0.087 | $0.56 |
| 08-30 15:21 | Will Jack Grealish stay at Manchester City? | SELL | 0.082 | $0.10 |
| 08-30 10:39 | Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal? | SELL | 0.155 | $7.75 |
| 08-28 15:17 | Will Rafael Leao join Aston Villa? | BUY | 0.0063115792 | $0.46 |
| 08-28 14:57 | Will Rafael Leao stay at AC Milan? | BUY | 0.0281019056 | $2.76 |
| 08-28 07:35 | Will Rafael Leao join Aston Villa? | BUY | 0.19 | $4.75 |
| 08-28 07:09 | Will Rafael Leao stay at AC Milan? | BUY | 0.055 | $1.10 |
| 08-28 07:01 | Will Rafael Leao join Aston Villa? | BUY | 0.17 | $3.40 |
| 08-28 06:42 | Will Rafael Leao join Aston Villa? | BUY | 0.19 | $7.60 |
| 08-28 06:42 | Will Rafael Leao join Aston Villa? | BUY | 0.18 | $7.20 |