PolyBot

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Traders

taerv534

0x30f91b6df5a62ab2e504045e25fd449a23affbfc

Realised P&L
$87.2k
Volume
$5.66M
Markets traded
1,955
Open portfolio
$4.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded1,955
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration45.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0070.035$829.16+$673.79
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.6960.935$295.15+$75.38
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.4100.835$235.47+$119.84
US military draft authorized in 2026? · No0.8000.968$186.06+$32.24
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.3920.230$169.50$119.45
Will US annex any territory in 2026? · No0.8000.942$143.57+$21.58
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026? · Yes0.5280.564$139.28+$8.67
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.5000.935$135.57+$63.06
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · No0.7270.935$131.44+$29.31
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.7610.962$125.96+$26.27
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.0180.004$124.79$507.60
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? · No0.5850.978$108.79+$43.68
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.8810.983$108.08+$11.13
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0030.004$100.02+$9.77
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? · No0.4910.840$94.08+$39.04

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 03:24Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.22$22.00
09-16 03:21Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.22$22.00
09-15 18:25Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?BUY0.008$16.00
09-10 06:51Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.0191676576$1.61
09-10 06:38Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.01$0.10
09-10 06:27Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.0179536908$3.88
09-03 19:55Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.501$1.00
08-21 19:20Will Meituan be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?BUY0.001$0.29
08-21 19:19Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?BUY0.001$0.43
08-21 19:19Will Tencent be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?BUY0.001$0.24
08-21 19:19Will Thinky be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?BUY0.001$0.55
08-21 19:19Will ByteDance be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?BUY0.001$0.28
08-21 19:16Will Thinky be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?BUY0.001$0.04
08-21 19:15Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?BUY0.001$0.17
08-21 07:01Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.001$0.39