taerv534
0x30f91b6df5a62ab2e504045e25fd449a23affbfc
- Realised P&L
- $87.2k
- Volume
- $5.66M
- Markets traded
- 1,955
- Open portfolio
- $4.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,955
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration45.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.8kat 0.300Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
- +$5.7kat 0.023Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
- +$5.4kat 0.858Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?
- +$4.8kat 0.021Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$4.0kat 0.016Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 03:24 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $22.00 |
| 09-16 03:21 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $22.00 |
| 09-15 18:25 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15? | BUY | 0.008 | $16.00 |
| 09-10 06:51 | Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0191676576 | $1.61 |
| 09-10 06:38 | Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.01 | $0.10 |
| 09-10 06:27 | Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0179536908 | $3.88 |
| 09-03 19:55 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.501 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 19:20 | Will Meituan be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.29 |
| 08-21 19:19 | Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.43 |
| 08-21 19:19 | Will Tencent be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.24 |
| 08-21 19:19 | Will Thinky be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.55 |
| 08-21 19:19 | Will ByteDance be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.28 |
| 08-21 19:16 | Will Thinky be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.04 |
| 08-21 19:15 | Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.17 |
| 08-21 07:01 | Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.39 |