PolyBot

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Will 1200 to 1249 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-10

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.044. up 0.004 over the period, from 0.041. Range 0.025 to 0.056. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0611111
0.063516
0.0661026
0.0674369
0.06856125
0.06967192
0.08080272
0.08155327
0.08310336
0.0848344
0.08753397
0.09526423

Spread0.033Mid0.044

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0284040
0.0273878
0.025378456
0.01197553
0.010163716
0.0023,1003,816
0.00114,49918,315

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9724040
0.9733878
0.975378456
0.98997553
0.990163716
0.9983,1003,816
0.99914,49918,315

Spread0.033Mid0.956

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9391111
0.937516
0.9341026
0.9334369
0.93256125
0.93167192
0.92080272
0.91955327
0.91710336
0.9168344
0.91353397
0.90526423

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
Jgyuig34Yes1,449.23
cry.eth2Yes186.32
0x45e6Df48cCF5d1773D509C97052F819690cEC078-1782111207998Yes100
2B9SYes91
jennylulu2016Yes62
donthackmeYes57.54
0x06d898dd11C4c1ffcA1F91c2c47f6E379b4C9446-1776245316934Yes55
48xsdsYes53.9
0x4ffa…3e2eYes47.5
wozaitaibeiYes45
AJSVYes38.39
0xd46e…a2baYes37.39
qqqppp-l1Yes36.8
PPMTYes29.96
0xA837c66CF7114f3368F30008a5CE8adD14D134Ea-1773326930922Yes23.36
oddoYes22.41
FlashTradeOracleYes20.41
human.beanYes20.03
86fghYes16.94
hr26g2re62deYes13.11

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
04:09:24BUYNo0.9510$9.50
20:50:30BUYYes0.0613$0.80
13:47:48SELLYes0.02520$0.50
15:25:04SELLYes0.0250$0.01
15:24:01SELLYes0.0252$0.04
15:21:34SELLYes0.0250$0.01
17:50:15BUYNo0.966791428656$54.14
17:50:13BUYNo0.959745555654$51.83
13:52:57BUYNo0.9595$4.79
08:47:27SELLYes0.040215306149$1.97
07:25:57BUYNo0.95930$28.77
12:09:02BUYNo0.95915$14.38
13:54:58BUYNo0.95899999568$7.39
11:37:19BUYNo0.958665089255$52.67
08:12:33BUYNo0.9567$7.04
08:12:33BUYNo0.95720$19.24
17:27:39SELLYes0.0447$1.89
12:03:24BUYNo0.965$5.07
12:03:22BUYNo0.9630$28.80
10:22:32SELLYes0.04110$0.41
19:22:56SELLYes0.0415$0.21
16:12:28BUYNo0.959769333375$71.98
16:12:28BUYNo0.959638069648$45.87
16:12:28BUYNo0.96117$112.23
16:12:26BUYNo0.9611$10.44