PolyBot

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Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-11-01
Resolves by
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.974. up 0.694 over the period, from 0.280. Range 0.230 to 0.975. 166 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.9991717

Spread0.004Mid0.997

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.99555
0.9626065
0.950125190
0.94725215
0.946100315
0.92820335
0.920100435
0.700161596
0.41020616
0.03823638
0.03719657
0.03613670

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.00555
0.0386065
0.050125190
0.05325215
0.054100315
0.07220335
0.080100435
0.300161596
0.59020616
0.96223638
0.96319657
0.96413670

Spread0.004Mid0.003

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.0011717

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
tinman2Yes500
AlwaysHereYes330.67
memetalYes160.02
FniiiYes100
0x7f15F350261a0dfA8bff802df364E33773d552f1-1768964329836Yes95.99
unclefei028Yes26.38
68492363940Yes14.29
AergiaYes10
DowJones2Yes8.94
wte2026Yes5
mamaiNo408.64
ConsensusOfCredibleReportingNo160.5
cigarettesNo141.87
AJSVNo132.35
HaradwaithNo100
Numitus1994No75.53
.MentheNo48.24
2B9SNo44
timeistmoneyNo37.05
VonVonaghNo25

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
18:14:24SELLNo0.00109561353$0.06
09:28:02BUYNo0.0143$0.43
09:28:01BUYYes0.9957$56.26
09:53:49SELLYes0.93620$18.72
23:15:57SELLNo0.00320$0.06
22:41:33BUYYes0.981896551758$56.95
14:07:36BUYYes0.99102$101.00
14:05:22BUYYes0.995$4.95
19:45:04BUYYes0.9788477622289$283.23
19:42:11BUYYes0.955082284641$39.46
19:42:02BUYYes0.9596$91.19
19:38:10BUYYes0.95500$475.00
19:08:26SELLNo0.0220$0.40
19:08:25BUYYes0.9520$19.00
18:37:01BUYNo0.0325$0.75
18:11:26BUYYes0.9910$9.90
18:10:44BUYYes0.9826$25.85
18:08:26SELLNo0.0211046429280$5.91
18:05:28SELLNo0.0313$0.38
18:05:20SELLNo0.0310$0.29
18:04:41BUYYes0.94276$259.45
18:03:28SELLYes0.9666$63.83
18:03:16BUYYes0.9424$22.56
18:03:11BUYYes0.909999998957$51.71
18:02:44SELLNo0.124$2.36