PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

AlwaysHere

0xbb9655f5883280f926934474b21437d3f7339545

Realised P&L
$2.2k
Volume
$274.8k
Markets traded
320
Open portfolio
$74.37

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded320
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.5510.857$29.98+$10.69
Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month? · Yes0.3050.550$25.30+$11.26
Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month? · Yes0.2920.415$19.09+$5.65
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes0.5300.000$0.00−$26.50
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00−$2.30
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? · Yes0.3900.000$0.00−$19.50
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No0.6300.000$0.00−$39.57
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00−$1.40
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.5800.000$0.00−$5.80
Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yes0.2700.000$0.00−$13.50
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17? · Yes0.0300.000$0.00−$19.98
Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in United States this month? · No0.0550.000$0.00−$11.05
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? · Yes0.1270.000$0.00−$13.58
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17? · No0.0200.000$0.00−$17.76
Megaquake by July 31? · Yes0.0150.000$0.00−$7.49

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-07 11:11Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?BUY0.35$7.00
10-07 11:09Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Japan this month?BUY0.2476923077$6.44
10-06 16:18Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?BUY0.38$7.60
10-06 16:18Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?BUY0.2476923077$6.44
10-02 11:57Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Peru this month?SELL0.999$19.98
09-30 10:07Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Chile this month?BUY0.95$87.40
09-27 10:29Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?BUY0.998$267.41
09-14 09:57Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Peru this month?BUY0.6$12.06
09-13 13:36Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Peru this month?BUY0.55$11.00
09-12 10:19Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?BUY0.76$6.60
09-11 12:03Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in Indonesia this month?BUY0.8137974684$64.29
08-23 20:24Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?BUY0.93$128.93
08-10 14:44Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?SELL0.44$43.99
08-10 14:44Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?SELL0.32$9.60
07-28 20:18Megaquake by July 31?BUY0.0196670694$5.00