cigarettes
0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9
- Realised P&L
- $730.9k
- Volume
- $596.70M
- Markets traded
- 117,241
- Open portfolio
- $218.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded117,241
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- CautionProfit concentration42.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.38Mat 0.006Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
- +$3.36Mat 0.004Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$2.68Mat 0.018No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
- +$2.57Mat 0.071Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$2.55Mat 0.013Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:26 | Tiburon: Timo Legout vs Bryce Nakashima | BUY | 0.41 | $13.14 |
| 09-17 19:23 | Tiburon: Timo Legout vs Bryce Nakashima | BUY | 0.44 | $22.00 |
| 09-17 19:22 | Tiburon: Timo Legout vs Bryce Nakashima | BUY | 0.43 | $21.50 |
| 09-17 19:21 | Tiburon: Timo Legout vs Bryce Nakashima | BUY | 0.397746 | $19.89 |
| 09-17 19:21 | Tiburon: Timo Legout vs Bryce Nakashima | BUY | 0.38 | $19.00 |
| 09-17 19:21 | Tiburon: Timo Legout vs Bryce Nakashima | BUY | 0.38 | $6.40 |
| 09-17 19:21 | Tiburon: Timo Legout vs Bryce Nakashima | BUY | 0.38 | $7.41 |
| 09-17 19:21 | Tiburon: Timo Legout vs Bryce Nakashima | BUY | 0.38 | $5.18 |
| 09-17 18:27 | Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.46 | $20.24 |
| 09-17 18:27 | Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.13 | $2.34 |
| 09-17 18:27 | Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.46 | $58.42 |
| 09-17 18:25 | Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.13 | $7.41 |
| 09-17 18:12 | Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.12 | $6.72 |
| 09-17 18:12 | Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.12 | $10.32 |
| 09-17 18:00 | Will FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. RU Saint-Gilloise end in a draw? | BUY | 0.73 | $12.41 |