cigarettes
0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9
- Realised P&L
- $-52.1k
- Volume
- $606.71M
- Markets traded
- 158,394
- Open portfolio
- $565.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded158,394
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- CautionProfit concentration40.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration7.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.53Mat 0.448Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$1.60Mat 0.611Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.16Mat 0.321Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$971.0kat 0.735Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$711.6kat 0.359Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:19 | UFC 334: Jim Miller vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.35 | $3.50 |
| 11-01 21:18 | 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5) | BUY | 0.43 | $43.00 |
| 11-01 20:56 | Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.992 | $496.00 |
| 11-01 20:55 | Celtics vs. Magic | BUY | 0.36 | $36.00 |
| 11-01 20:50 | Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat? | BUY | 0.34 | $17.00 |
| 11-01 20:49 | Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat? | BUY | 0.26 | $8.84 |
| 11-01 20:47 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.014 | $7.00 |
| 11-01 20:46 | Celtics vs. Magic | BUY | 0.43 | $17.19 |
| 11-01 20:42 | Celtics vs. Magic | BUY | 0.71 | $99.40 |
| 11-01 20:26 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.063 | $1.67 |
| 11-01 19:54 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.14 | $4.51 |
| 11-01 19:54 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.14 | $8.26 |
| 11-01 19:54 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.14 | $11.76 |
| 11-01 19:54 | Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.14 | $6.38 |
| 11-01 19:54 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.012 | $4.16 |