Haradwaith
0x21ffd2b7a212a6f277ed3eca1a9f8efcbca90d71
- Realised P&L
- $-237.0k
- Volume
- $109.53M
- Markets traded
- 63,103
- Open portfolio
- $260.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded63,103
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- CautionProfit concentration35.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.0kat 0.180Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$3.7kat 0.011Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$3.6kat 0.023Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$2.8kat 0.031Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?
- +$2.5kat 0.001Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 19:33 | Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election? | SELL | 0.15 | $36.78 |
| 08-02 19:23 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 08-02 18:57 | Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? | SELL | 0.951 | $63.93 |
| 08-02 17:12 | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.957 | $82.43 |
| 08-02 16:38 | FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $270.42 |
| 08-02 15:01 | Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $29.95 |
| 08-02 14:59 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? | SELL | 0.05 | $8.08 |
| 08-02 14:37 | Will Walt Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.11 | $12.40 |
| 08-02 14:35 | Will Walt Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.88 | $44.09 |
| 08-02 11:08 | Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $24.14 |
| 08-02 09:52 | Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $167.49 |
| 08-02 09:38 | Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? | SELL | 0.553 | $17.36 |
| 08-02 09:18 | Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.67 | $7.98 |
| 08-02 08:38 | U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31? | SELL | 0.792 | $15.84 |
| 08-02 02:15 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.092 | $1.00 |