PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Haradwaith

0x21ffd2b7a212a6f277ed3eca1a9f8efcbca90d71

Realised P&L
$-237.0k
Volume
$109.53M
Markets traded
63,103
Open portfolio
$260.4k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded63,103
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
CautionProfit concentration35.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration5.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No0.5470.465$4.5k$807.98
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.9090.906$3.0k$10.27
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9700.965$2.8k$17.10
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7640.795$2.7k+$105.73
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.8840.887$2.6k+$10.74
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.7600.751$2.6k$29.49
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.9160.914$2.6k$4.50
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.9790.959$2.1k$44.06
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No0.5840.536$2.1k$187.10
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · No0.9270.935$2.1k+$17.18
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · No0.9620.958$2.0k$8.90
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No0.9880.988$2.0k+$0.00
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.5410.503$1.9k$146.75
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.8030.792$1.8k$24.34
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026? · No0.9680.974$1.8k+$10.47

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 19:33Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?SELL0.15$36.78
08-02 19:23Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 3?SELL0.57$11.40
08-02 18:57Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?SELL0.951$63.93
08-02 17:12Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?SELL0.957$82.43
08-02 16:38FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?SELL0.88$270.42
08-02 15:01Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?SELL0.29$29.95
08-02 14:59Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?SELL0.05$8.08
08-02 14:37Will Walt Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.11$12.40
08-02 14:35Will Walt Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.88$44.09
08-02 11:08Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?SELL0.45$24.14
08-02 09:52Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?SELL0.67$167.49
08-02 09:38Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?SELL0.553$17.36
08-02 09:18Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 2?SELL0.67$7.98
08-02 08:38U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?SELL0.792$15.84
08-02 02:15Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?SELL0.092$1.00