tinman2
0x9baebe30d1cefe0ac5be4be85189c9fa33e95d34
- Realised P&L
- $10.5k
- Volume
- $1.68M
- Markets traded
- 1,563
- Open portfolio
- $22.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,563
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration19.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.1kat 0.690Will Biden finish his term?
- +$5.9kat 0.329Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$5.0kat 0.695Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
- +$3.5kat 0.587US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.647Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 02:39 | Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 09-16 19:18 | Seahawks Team Total: O/U 20.5 | BUY | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | BUY | 0.2223214245 | $96.64 |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4077539 | $407.75 |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.713 | $62.79 |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will no one dissent the September Fed decision? | BUY | 0.98 | $0.31 |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.5848082 | $584.81 |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | BUY | 0.6568452 | $656.85 |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | BUY | 0.2761698041 | $7.19 |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.49333 | $493.33 |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $420.00 |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.36 | $360.00 |
| 09-16 16:37 | Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V? | BUY | 0.13 | $5.86 |
| 09-16 15:47 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.504 | $25.20 |
| 09-15 21:58 | Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? | BUY | 0.13 | $6.50 |