PolyBot

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Will there be no next Claude Opus model release by September 30, 2026?

Tick
0.001
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2026-10-01

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.028. down 0.113 over the period, from 0.140. Range 0.011 to 0.285. 136 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.03199
0.036117126
0.05071197
0.12320217
0.124154371
0.127300671
0.13210681
0.1358689
0.141300989
0.1479998
0.200301,028
0.201191,047

Spread0.007Mid0.028

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.024232232
0.02140272
0.020150422
0.017154576
0.016310886
0.0155001,386
0.0143201,706
0.0136342,340
0.0128173,156
0.0113383,494
0.0101,5004,994
0.0091,0566,049

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.976232232
0.97940272
0.980150422
0.983154576
0.984310886
0.9855001,386
0.9863201,706
0.9876342,340
0.9888173,156
0.9893383,494
0.9901,5004,994
0.9911,0566,049

Spread0.007Mid0.972

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.96999
0.964117126
0.95071197
0.87720217
0.876154371
0.873300671
0.86810681
0.8658689
0.859300989
0.8539998
0.800301,028
0.799191,047

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
balthazarYes5,418.97
grandvaliraYes1,056.98
Elias.eziYes666.49
19AmnYes369.88
GuyFromTinderYes350
donshowzyYes318.71
2B9SYes246.71
flywheelpolyYes211.91
speculativefireYes180
henki-604Yes178.55
tradetosurvive1Yes158.02
LonelyScissorsYes153.62
conherenceYes145
HerrieDavisYes140.42
mustbethewaterYes134.98
FihdrzgddYes125
donthackmeYes121.06
NoTeacherYes107.76
brightKongYes104.98
KfjdbebjdjdvwnksjfvebksYes103

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
13:56:09SELLYes0.032$0.06
13:55:48BUYYes0.03170$2.17
12:57:37BUYNo0.9819999983$3.02
12:48:25BUYYes0.0270357482370$10.00
10:53:43BUYNo0.984415521639$38.69
10:53:42BUYNo0.98420$19.71
10:53:42BUYNo0.98340$39.32
10:52:06BUYNo0.98420$19.68
07:49:49BUYNo0.98340$39.32
07:23:36BUYNo0.98299999725$4.92
07:23:36BUYNo0.9838$7.86
07:23:34BUYNo0.9835$4.92
07:20:30BUYNo0.98326$25.69
05:04:15BUYYes0.0280035121179$5.00
04:00:03BUYNo0.98324$23.71
03:59:55BUYNo0.98070210$9.81
03:59:54SELLYes0.02950$1.45
03:44:02SELLYes0.0295$0.14
03:43:41BUYNo0.97099999221$1.25
03:31:23SELLYes0.02940$1.16
03:31:09BUYYes0.02983$2.40
03:19:51BUYNo0.98211$10.80
03:19:51BUYNo0.98240$39.28
03:19:51BUYNo0.9830675547105$103.32
02:45:35BUYNo0.9849999995$4.74