mustbethewater
0xc5187cb669690150643ba2f9aac6b7d98d212594
- Realised P&L
- $73.2k
- Volume
- $8.56M
- Markets traded
- 54,564
- Open portfolio
- $11.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded54,564
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.9kat 0.227Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$7.6kat 0.525Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$6.7kat 0.245Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$5.1kat 0.580Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$4.4kat 0.693Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 12:48 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.996 | $19.96 |
| 11-02 12:48 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.9 | $18.00 |
| 11-02 12:35 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on November 3? | BUY | 0.9659999958 | $3.24 |
| 11-02 12:35 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on November 3? | BUY | 0.5799999941 | $1.95 |
| 11-02 12:35 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on November 3? | BUY | 0.9969999997 | $6.97 |
| 11-02 12:35 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on November 3? | BUY | 0.994 | $3.34 |
| 11-02 12:35 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 3? | BUY | 0.996 | $3.34 |
| 11-02 12:23 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.9989999844 | $57.05 |
| 11-02 12:23 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on November 2? | BUY | 0.992 | $28.55 |
| 11-02 12:20 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on November 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 11-02 12:20 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on November 3? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.90 |
| 11-02 12:20 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on November 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 11-02 12:20 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on November 3? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.80 |
| 11-02 12:08 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 2? | BUY | 0.6799999853 | $25.91 |
| 11-02 12:08 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on November 2? | BUY | 0.9 | $16.28 |