Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rewards: 20 min size · 3.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.023. down 0.064 over the period, from 0.086. Range 0.015 to 0.086. 145 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.027	1	1
0.035	26	26
0.036	31	57
0.070	86	142
0.075	5	147
0.076	5	152
0.077	5	158
0.078	5	163
0.079	5	168
0.080	5	173
0.081	5	178
0.082	35	213

Spread0.008Mid0.023

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.019	99	99
0.018	105	204
0.017	111	315
0.016	118	433
0.015	226	659
0.014	135	794
0.013	146	940
0.012	157	1,097
0.011	172	1,269
0.010	188	1,457
0.009	210	1,667
0.008	236	1,903

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.981	99	99
0.982	105	204
0.983	111	315
0.984	118	433
0.985	226	659
0.986	135	794
0.987	146	940
0.988	157	1,097
0.989	172	1,269
0.990	188	1,457
0.991	210	1,667
0.992	236	1,903

Spread0.008Mid0.977

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.973	1	1
0.965	26	26
0.964	31	57
0.930	86	142
0.925	5	147
0.924	5	152
0.923	5	158
0.922	5	163
0.921	5	168
0.920	5	173
0.919	5	178
0.918	35	213

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
hippoka	Yes	6,343.99
fiter	Yes	4,076.02
howesr1970	Yes	2,729.65
0xeBABa6D3C08C5FfF3d444cE0F751E6D97F15CFf5-1779341123078	Yes	2,000
PCMTest	Yes	1,350
MarginCallMeBaby	Yes	779.99
bomzh.kolyadun	Yes	763.18
HerrieDavis	Yes	617.34
0x219a…656a	Yes	615.43
acc42020	Yes	598.61
wallet-account-test	Yes	571
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	507.08
TENETENET	Yes	500
0x927a…90d6	Yes	424.15
2B9S	Yes	376.28
Deadheadbucky	Yes	371.85
donthackme	Yes	350
0xf278A463B5666Fd953Bc1F57302095003F3AA69d-1773426959522	Yes	340.8
0x1D36756fbAAED1433bF59c80b105396513d82A3b-1771747868231	Yes	284.77
125-kooyanisqatsi	Yes	253.35

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
19:57:19	BUY	No	0.98	94	$92.12
09:30:00	SELL	No	0.9734793548	31	$30.18
14:32:34	BUY	No	0.976	15	$14.50
10:31:10	BUY	Yes	0.026	17	$0.43
10:21:10	BUY	Yes	0.0244997001	33	$0.82
09:52:52	SELL	Yes	0.017	15	$0.25
09:52:44	SELL	Yes	0.019	1	$0.02
09:52:38	SELL	Yes	0.023	13	$0.31
09:52:32	SELL	Yes	0.023	30	$0.69
07:37:47	BUY	No	0.9739999992	19	$18.69
07:37:31	BUY	No	0.974	20	$19.48
07:37:31	BUY	No	0.974	27	$25.81
07:37:31	BUY	No	0.974	20	$19.48
19:16:20	SELL	No	0.958	0	$0.26
19:16:19	SELL	Yes	0.0093334445	30	$0.28
18:55:38	BUY	Yes	0.0364729565	58	$2.11
18:24:13	SELL	Yes	0.0020796111	2,256	$4.69
18:23:53	SELL	Yes	0.0085278172	3,238	$27.61
18:20:58	BUY	No	0.95233	40	$38.09
18:09:46	BUY	No	0.949	30	$28.47
18:09:44	SELL	Yes	0.051	7	$0.34
18:05:31	BUY	No	0.9483333333	30	$28.45
18:04:10	BUY	No	0.947	37	$35.04
18:03:49	BUY	No	0.94575	8	$7.57
16:56:47	BUY	Yes	0.059	76	$4.48