Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends: 2026-12-09
Rewards: 20 min size · 3.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.174. up 0.119 over the period, from 0.054. Range 0.054 to 0.194. 169 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.185	5	5
0.187	5	10
0.188	5	15
0.190	5	20
0.191	5	25
0.193	5	30
0.195	5	36
0.196	5	41
0.198	5	46
0.199	62	108
0.200	389	496
0.201	5	501

Spread0.022Mid0.174

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.163	112	112
0.162	55	167
0.159	5	172
0.154	5	177
0.149	5	182
0.145	22	204
0.140	6	210
0.135	6	216
0.131	5	221
0.127	5	226
0.123	5	231
0.119	6	237

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.837	112	112
0.838	55	167
0.841	5	172
0.846	5	177
0.851	5	182
0.855	22	204
0.860	6	210
0.865	6	216
0.869	5	221
0.873	5	226
0.877	5	231
0.881	6	237

Spread0.022Mid0.826

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.815	5	5
0.813	5	10
0.812	5	15
0.810	5	20
0.809	5	25
0.807	5	30
0.805	5	36
0.804	5	41
0.802	5	46
0.801	62	108
0.800	389	496
0.799	5	501

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
hippoka	Yes	6,293.99
ratehikes	Yes	3,559.96
howesr1970	Yes	2,729.65
bomzh.kolyadun	Yes	1,534.51
PCMTest	Yes	1,350
Adrink3D	Yes	1,313.09
acc42020	Yes	669.33
0x219a…656a	Yes	615.43
TENETENET	Yes	500
cry.eth2	Yes	471.27
0x927a…90d6	Yes	424.15
2B9S	Yes	376.28
Deadheadbucky	Yes	371.85
0xf278A463B5666Fd953Bc1F57302095003F3AA69d-1773426959522	Yes	340.8
donthackme	Yes	333.39
Perypery	Yes	300.1
0x1D36756fbAAED1433bF59c80b105396513d82A3b-1771747868231	Yes	284.77
125-kooyanisqatsi	Yes	264.31
ODINDAO	Yes	250
0x5eDF4CA130DbEEfbaFf0BFEC69Eb015599173a0C-1759463565861	Yes	236.85

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
03:22:34	BUY	Yes	0.1891388889	36	$6.81
02:20:30	BUY	Yes	0.1891944186	43	$8.14
01:03:49	BUY	Yes	0.186488	20	$3.73
21:43:19	BUY	Yes	0.186452	20	$3.73
21:08:03	BUY	Yes	0.184	14	$2.58
21:02:03	BUY	Yes	0.182	25	$4.55
19:12:34	BUY	Yes	0.1890298702	74	$14.00
19:12:12	BUY	Yes	0.1795093229	329	$59.00
18:01:16	BUY	No	0.8992313958	108	$97.15
17:55:34	BUY	No	0.8523625964	75	$64.08
15:50:06	BUY	Yes	0.193409309	103	$20.00
15:44:57	BUY	Yes	0.174	23	$4.06
15:44:18	BUY	Yes	0.164579	40	$6.58
15:42:00	BUY	No	0.899	5	$4.50
15:40:09	BUY	No	0.899	5	$4.85
15:36:57	BUY	No	0.899	2	$1.42
15:31:44	BUY	No	0.899	5	$4.50
15:31:42	BUY	No	0.899	9	$8.09
15:26:38	BUY	No	0.899	13	$11.69
15:26:38	BUY	No	0.899	10	$8.99
15:21:41	BUY	No	0.8989999918	10	$9.00
15:21:33	BUY	No	0.8503750938	13	$11.34
15:21:33	BUY	No	0.85	5	$4.25
15:21:33	BUY	No	0.813	11	$8.78
15:21:33	BUY	No	0.813	4	$3.48