PolyBot

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Traders

MarginCallMeBaby

0x4cf3b58d4b9e73a87bff612a24f0b6a95e736904

Realised P&L
$-473.79
Volume
$9.4k
Markets traded
77
Open portfolio
$1.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-5.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded77
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample40 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration71.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.5610.680$1.0k+$178.65
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? · No0.8100.725$362.49−$42.50
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.3080.023$17.94−$222.35
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? · Yes0.5600.705$12.59+$2.59
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League? · Yes0.2000.385$9.61+$4.61
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 4PM ET · Down0.2250.000$0.00−$2.25
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31? · No0.9300.000$0.00−$186.00
Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots · Yes0.5600.000$0.00−$5.60
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · No0.0550.000$0.00−$0.28
Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists · Yes0.1300.000$0.00−$1.30
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00−$1.00
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0730.000$0.00−$1.46
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 5PM ET · Up0.1850.000$0.00−$1.85
Mo Touré: 1+ shots · Yes0.4500.000$0.00−$4.50
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $85B by June 30? · No0.4100.000$0.00−$4.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-16 10:29Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?SELL0.1348787879$4.45
10-16 10:29Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?SELL0.14$2.52
10-16 10:28Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?SELL0.141$4.09
10-16 09:57Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?SELL0.1413733333$42.41
10-16 09:51Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?BUY0.6802407848$340.11
10-14 21:42Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?BUY0.81$404.99
10-14 21:27Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?BUY0.268$1.34
10-14 16:49Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?BUY0.225$32.18
10-13 14:07Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?BUY0.4899430606$161.68
09-25 16:45Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?BUY0.2$5.00
09-25 14:11Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?BUY0.5599999955$10.00
07-11 20:47Spread: England (-1.5)BUY0.2874999853$10.00
07-04 15:18Ismael Saibari: 1+ assistsBUY0.84$4.20
07-03 16:46Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shotsBUY0.47$4.70
07-03 16:42Mo Touré: 1+ shotsSELL0.3$3.00