Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?

Tick: 0.001
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://agi.safe.ai/
Rewards: 20 min size · 6.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.670. up 0.089 over the period, from 0.581. Range 0.563 to 0.828. 145 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.756	157	157
0.757	200	357
0.802	50	407
0.819	22	429
0.873	55	484
0.874	5	489
0.966	12	501
0.967	21	522
0.968	100	622
0.969	64	686
0.970	5	691
0.980	50	741

Spread0.172Mid0.670

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.584	20	20
0.512	55	75
0.511	200	275
0.510	200	475
0.498	14	489
0.497	23	512
0.470	435	947
0.105	40	987
0.101	5	992
0.100	21	1,013
0.060	5	1,018
0.021	8	1,026

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.416	20	20
0.488	55	75
0.489	200	275
0.490	200	475
0.502	14	489
0.503	23	512
0.530	435	947
0.895	40	987
0.899	5	992
0.900	21	1,013
0.940	5	1,018
0.979	8	1,026

Spread0.172Mid0.330

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.244	157	157
0.243	200	357
0.198	50	407
0.181	22	429
0.127	55	484
0.126	5	489
0.034	12	501
0.033	21	522
0.032	100	622
0.031	64	686
0.030	5	691
0.020	50	741

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
cesquare	Yes	2,543.15
LornaPredicts	Yes	165.56
varch01	Yes	100
buyaonao	Yes	100
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	84.21
0x43E0F1fC0FF7724Cf70959F8b5Ae476c006e1caF-1751843510927	Yes	80
Mithrandir.	Yes	50
hfv	Yes	50
0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yes	43.09
shoggoth	Yes	40
Miguel262144	Yes	40
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	35.24
justmeandme	Yes	21
crastsa	Yes	20
Praescientia	Yes	15
benngai	Yes	12.5
0xFf12c076486622f6492023399a4E84d46dFbcDC4-1771515289272	Yes	11.53
omnikdy	Yes	10
liukun	Yes	10
otto.	Yes	9.01

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
07:02:04	BUY	Yes	0.684	20	$13.68
07:01:06	SELL	No	0.3542521368	187	$66.32
13:45:31	BUY	Yes	0.614	20	$12.28
01:49:43	SELL	Yes	0.584	1	$0.43
01:49:42	SELL	Yes	0.5847987339	107	$62.82
17:06:31	SELL	Yes	0.6893985594	50	$34.46
15:30:24	SELL	Yes	0.693	10	$6.94
09:09:45	BUY	Yes	0.743	20	$14.86
09:09:43	SELL	No	0.267	20	$5.34
09:08:58	BUY	Yes	0.723	20	$14.46
03:39:34	BUY	Yes	0.695	20	$13.90
21:50:37	BUY	No	0.210247917	172	$36.08
21:50:37	BUY	Yes	0.722	5	$3.61
21:50:37	BUY	Yes	0.722	35	$25.27
17:40:25	BUY	Yes	0.8605203621	80	$68.84
17:40:13	SELL	No	0.1623513767	182	$29.48
17:38:07	SELL	No	0.246682061	148	$36.48
11:55:26	SELL	No	0.244	20	$4.88
11:55:26	BUY	No	0.294	40	$11.76
07:08:34	BUY	No	0.282	20	$5.64
07:07:25	SELL	No	0.309	20	$6.18
01:41:22	BUY	Yes	0.677	20	$13.54
21:23:37	BUY	Yes	0.6889999097	1	$1.00
09:58:17	BUY	No	0.4	20	$8.00
14:53:00	SELL	No	0.415	10	$4.15