PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

buyaonao

0x5497bd9b48337f06fd51d695e7a05bc6ed778ac9

Realised P&L
$-1.0k
Volume
$43.1k
Markets traded
180
Open portfolio
$283.68

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded180
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration20.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration50.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.7000.715$143.00+$3.00
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? · Yes0.7700.766$76.65$0.35
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · Yes0.5800.455$45.50$12.50
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.7400.885$11.96+$1.96
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? · Yes0.6400.180$6.58$16.81
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1650.000$0.00$16.50
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? · No0.8200.000$0.00$24.60
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00$10.00
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0150.000$0.00$3.00
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.8000.000$0.00$1.00
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00$1.00
Will Trump visit China by April 30? · Yes0.3700.000$0.00$14.80
Will Zcash reach $1500 by December 31, 2026? · No0.0700.000$0.00$14.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No0.1550.000$0.00$15.50
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? · Yes0.0450.000$0.00$9.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-11 17:30Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 14, 2026?SELL0.305753$30.58
09-09 03:53Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.7399999734$10.00
07-31 14:24Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?BUY0.83$134.23
07-07 12:59Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?SELL0.699341$69.93
06-23 04:19Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?SELL0.40261$40.26
06-16 15:13Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?BUY0.69$27.60
06-15 01:42US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?SELL0.955$191.00
05-28 04:33Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?SELL0.9890647$98.91
05-13 01:30Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?SELL0.968$48.40
04-23 08:14Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?SELL0.994$99.40
04-21 00:07Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?SELL0.241691$48.34
03-25 01:28Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?SELL0.202$15.98
03-23 06:47Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?BUY0.86$68.03
03-23 06:46Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?SELL0.14$28.00
03-23 00:40Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?BUY0.914$91.40