hfv
0xe102b1da4367d827b48c47ea91fadf6997ff71df
- Realised P&L
- $-18.5k
- Volume
- $1.18M
- Markets traded
- 1,339
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,339
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.490Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines
- +$1.1kat 0.819Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$958.49at 0.530FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5
- +$882.25at 0.100Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
- +$610.23at 0.080Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 16:21 | Will Taylor Swift be the third most streamed artist for 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $24.18 |
| 09-26 15:03 | Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | BUY | 0.2043700652 | $59.53 |
| 09-26 14:52 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.15 | $224.31 |
| 09-26 14:41 | Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? | BUY | 0.4390281746 | $132.14 |
| 09-26 13:47 | Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.2240206799 | $48.96 |
| 09-26 13:38 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.886 | $18.40 |
| 09-26 13:25 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.72 | $145.62 |
| 09-26 13:20 | Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $24.60 |
| 09-26 13:20 | Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $51.53 |
| 09-26 13:11 | No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? | BUY | 0.21 | $6.80 |
| 09-26 12:47 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.308731329 | $64.49 |
| 09-26 11:51 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.6655825138 | $309.99 |
| 09-26 11:49 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.6746364075 | $475.93 |
| 09-26 11:49 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.69 | $20.70 |
| 09-26 11:41 | Will Monika Piątkowska win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? | BUY | 0.18 | $19.44 |