0xFf12c076486622f6492023399a4E84d46dFbcDC4-1771515289272
0xff12c076486622f6492023399a4e84d46dfbcdc4
- Realised P&L
- $-662.57
- Volume
- $72.1k
- Markets traded
- 670
- Open portfolio
- $843.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded670
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$354.11at 0.211US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$186.59at 0.330MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$115.92at 0.132US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$100.38at 0.042US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$100.18at 0.370Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 10:45 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? | SELL | 0.615 | $5.36 |
| 10-20 05:07 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $8.26 |
| 10-19 17:22 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.489 | $11.02 |
| 10-19 17:22 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 10-19 04:06 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $3.70 |
| 10-19 02:22 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.66 | $6.60 |
| 10-19 00:36 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $36.29 |
| 10-19 00:34 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $3.50 |
| 10-18 21:36 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.469 | $2.41 |
| 10-18 00:56 | Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? | SELL | 0.84 | $5.83 |
| 10-17 04:43 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? | SELL | 0.603 | $4.94 |
| 10-17 04:21 | Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? | SELL | 0.597 | $4.36 |
| 10-17 01:11 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? | BUY | 0.607 | $16.10 |
| 10-17 00:08 | Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? | BUY | 0.523 | $3.82 |
| 10-16 18:35 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |