PolyBot

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Traders

Miguel262144

0x2df5ad0f2612c7bcf5f87543e126e0aa351051ac

Realised P&L
$2.2k
Volume
$246.3k
Markets traded
8,790
Open portfolio
$2.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded8,790
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration9.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration7.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.7870.855$141.93+$11.31
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · No0.6300.845$130.97+$33.33
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.4340.065$127.61$724.52
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.5380.512$109.53$5.47
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? · No0.6760.655$69.43$2.23
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.4880.145$50.14$118.66
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No0.1770.161$47.34$4.97
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · No0.3600.285$47.31$12.45
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · No0.7600.800$43.99+$2.20
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? · No0.2700.815$43.83+$29.31
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes0.5500.765$42.08+$11.82
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.6400.620$40.92$1.32
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · No0.5800.405$40.50$17.50
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · Yes0.7400.850$37.37+$4.82
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No0.6400.665$36.58+$1.38

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 02:53Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?BUY0.67$22.11
09-17 02:52Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.022$0.38
09-17 02:50Miami Marlins vs. Arizona DiamondbacksBUY0.79$34.76
09-17 02:50Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles AngelsBUY0.55$12.10
09-17 02:49Boston Red Sox vs. Texas RangersBUY0.541$11.90
09-17 02:49Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxBUY0.56$12.32
09-17 02:49Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York MetsBUY0.45$9.90
09-17 02:49San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesBUY0.607$20.03
09-17 02:48Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati RedsBUY0.62$27.90
09-17 02:48Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesBUY0.556$22.24
09-17 02:48Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles AngelsBUY0.47$10.34
09-16 02:09Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.3$6.60
09-16 02:05Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.12$2.64
09-16 02:00Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?BUY0.54$11.88
09-16 01:51Israel closes its airspace by September 30?BUY0.027$1.08