PolyBot

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Traders

Mithrandir.

0xb17d4706e45bf0935acc338162bd40af837e59ae

Realised P&L
$8.2k
Volume
$2.27M
Markets traded
1,938
Open portfolio
$71.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,938
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration10.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration9.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.8070.608$2.8k$914.17
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.9450.962$1.3k+$23.11
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No0.9050.935$1.1k+$36.33
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.8850.935$1.1k+$60.00
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · No0.7830.875$1.1k+$110.00
Iran full airspace closure by September 30? · No0.8840.945$945.00+$61.00
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.8370.967$864.91+$116.15
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.7720.855$855.00+$82.78
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? · No0.6830.639$783.38$52.80
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.9250.945$756.00+$16.00
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? · No0.8770.945$708.75+$50.75
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3180.255$696.86$171.07
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · No0.9760.995$696.15+$13.15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.4650.175$682.61$1.1k
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No0.8290.865$638.73+$26.54

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-15 16:29US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?BUY0.991$198.20
09-15 12:31Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.186015$37.20
09-15 11:35Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.1312078$26.24
09-15 10:16NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.2599$259.90
09-15 10:15NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.25$125.00
09-15 09:33Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.1683834$16.84
09-14 18:20Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?BUY0.93$37.20
09-14 17:18US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?BUY0.966$83.08
09-14 17:18US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?BUY0.016$1.38
09-14 17:14US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?BUY0.962$96.20
09-14 17:14US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?BUY0.01859$1.86
09-14 17:07US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?BUY0.962$96.20
09-14 17:07US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?BUY0.015$1.50
09-14 17:01US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?BUY0.964$96.40
09-14 17:01US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?BUY0.02$2.00