PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Mithrandir.

0xb17d4706e45bf0935acc338162bd40af837e59ae

Realised P&L
$11.5k
Volume
$1.21M
Markets traded
818
Open portfolio
$77.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded818
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration46.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 18:33US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9$180.00
08-02 18:31Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 27, 2026?BUY0.8949875312$35.89
08-02 18:31Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 26, 2026?BUY0.9$90.00
08-02 18:30Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 10, 2026?BUY0.89495$178.99
08-02 18:29Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 3, 2026?BUY0.9$18.00
08-02 17:12Israel closes its airspace by August 15?BUY0.88$88.00
08-02 16:48Will Iran target a Arab country on August 7, 2026?BUY0.7918725$316.75
08-02 16:47Will Iran target a Arab country on August 15, 2026?BUY0.78$7.79
08-02 16:37Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 15?BUY0.59$59.00
08-02 16:18Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?BUY0.8930265$178.61
08-02 14:37Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.8$450.01
08-02 14:30UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?BUY0.68$67.99
08-02 10:11Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August 2026?SELL0.9532462337$75.30
08-02 08:24Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?BUY0.72$288.00
08-01 16:10Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 91 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?BUY0.8853061869$280.47