Mithrandir.
0xb17d4706e45bf0935acc338162bd40af837e59ae
- Realised P&L
- $11.5k
- Volume
- $1.21M
- Markets traded
- 818
- Open portfolio
- $77.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded818
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.989MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.503Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
- +$942.84at 0.401Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 115m?
- +$865.75at 0.447US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
- +$831.09at 0.042US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 18:33 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $180.00 |
| 08-02 18:31 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.8949875312 | $35.89 |
| 08-02 18:31 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.00 |
| 08-02 18:30 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.89495 | $178.99 |
| 08-02 18:29 | Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $18.00 |
| 08-02 17:12 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.88 | $88.00 |
| 08-02 16:48 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.7918725 | $316.75 |
| 08-02 16:47 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $7.79 |
| 08-02 16:37 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 15? | BUY | 0.59 | $59.00 |
| 08-02 16:18 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record? | BUY | 0.8930265 | $178.61 |
| 08-02 14:37 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.8 | $450.01 |
| 08-02 14:30 | UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | BUY | 0.68 | $67.99 |
| 08-02 10:11 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August 2026? | SELL | 0.9532462337 | $75.30 |
| 08-02 08:24 | Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.72 | $288.00 |
| 08-01 16:10 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 91 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.8853061869 | $280.47 |