Mithrandir.
0xb17d4706e45bf0935acc338162bd40af837e59ae
- Realised P&L
- $8.2k
- Volume
- $2.27M
- Markets traded
- 1,938
- Open portfolio
- $71.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,938
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration10.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.989MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.744Will "Michael" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
- +$1.7kat 0.160NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.540Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
- +$1.1kat 0.302US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 16:29 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.991 | $198.20 |
| 09-15 12:31 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.186015 | $37.20 |
| 09-15 11:35 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1312078 | $26.24 |
| 09-15 10:16 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599 | $259.90 |
| 09-15 10:15 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $125.00 |
| 09-15 09:33 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1683834 | $16.84 |
| 09-14 18:20 | Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD? | BUY | 0.93 | $37.20 |
| 09-14 17:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.966 | $83.08 |
| 09-14 17:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.38 |
| 09-14 17:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.962 | $96.20 |
| 09-14 17:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.01859 | $1.86 |
| 09-14 17:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.962 | $96.20 |
| 09-14 17:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.015 | $1.50 |
| 09-14 17:01 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.964 | $96.40 |
| 09-14 17:01 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.02 | $2.00 |