shoggoth
0x231b923ef301b60f2ca041d658ad8c05432e73df
- Realised P&L
- $-84.60
- Volume
- $197.7k
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.775 | 1.000 | $1.4k | +$315.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.515 | 0.455 | $147.88 | −$19.37 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? · No | 0.890 | 0.968 | $96.75 | +$7.75 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.935 | $78.97 | +$0.42 |
| Will Solana dip to $30 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.771 | 0.986 | $54.22 | +$11.83 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.766 | $30.66 | −$2.14 |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.918 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$120.00 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.81 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$287.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$100.27at 0.818Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$48.69at 0.227Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$25.30at 0.863Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?
- +$20.16at 0.880Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?
- +$14.00at 0.160Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 12:34 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $140.00 |
| 09-11 12:34 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.76 | $532.00 |
| 09-11 12:33 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.21 | $147.00 |
| 09-11 12:33 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.79 | $553.00 |
| 09-11 12:30 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.82 | $32.80 |
| 09-11 12:29 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $78.55 |
| 09-11 12:28 | Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9865759451 | $204.08 |
| 08-06 14:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $23.88 |
| 08-06 08:43 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $40.00 |
| 08-06 08:43 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $42.00 |
| 08-06 08:43 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.095 | $24.32 |
| 08-06 03:34 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $4.48 |
| 08-06 03:29 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.094 | $12.79 |
| 06-28 02:01 | Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $87.00 |
| 06-28 02:00 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? | SELL | 0.092 | $1.99 |