0x43E0F1fC0FF7724Cf70959F8b5Ae476c006e1caF-1751843510927
0x43e0f1fc0ff7724cf70959f8b5ae476c006e1caf
- Realised P&L
- $-172.15
- Volume
- $15.2k
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $127.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? · Yes | 0.738 | 0.766 | $61.32 | +$2.28 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.865 | $60.55 | +$12.95 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.125 | $4.50 | −$12.78 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.185 | 0.025 | $1.25 | −$8.02 |
| Grok 4.4 released by June 30? · Yes | 0.597 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$107.48 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.834 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$250.22 |
| Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? · No | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.50 |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$65.60 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$88.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$75.63at 0.871Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
- +$27.47at 0.928Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?
- +$22.50at 0.800Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
- +$21.74at 0.699Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
- +$21.21at 0.498Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 21:13 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.89 | $103.19 |
| 09-13 14:11 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.6899999999 | $80.00 |
| 09-05 08:56 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1830003 | $6.10 |
| 09-05 08:56 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.48 | $17.28 |
| 09-03 16:02 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $69.86 |
| 09-03 10:07 | Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $65.60 |
| 09-03 09:22 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $47.60 |
| 08-16 12:07 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.738 | $55.28 |
| 08-16 12:03 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.773 | $37.18 |
| 08-01 22:04 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $88.35 |
| 07-03 09:22 | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9812581667 | $294.38 |
| 07-03 09:22 | GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.9519393333 | $142.79 |
| 07-03 09:21 | GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.9942741062 | $119.30 |
| 07-01 10:23 | GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.8963596966 | $107.55 |
| 07-01 10:19 | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9690169 | $290.71 |