varch01
0x0362bb926368b144e0ff98f6828a251e4cb6449e
- Realised P&L
- $-43.5k
- Volume
- $4.54M
- Markets traded
- 11,894
- Open portfolio
- $78.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11,894
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.4kat 0.160Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$5.4kat 0.460Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
- +$4.5kat 0.110Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$4.2kat 0.909Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$3.7kat 0.692Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 20:59 | Will AfD win between 32% and 35% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.81 | $81.00 |
| 09-12 20:57 | Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 0-2%? | BUY | 0.91 | $91.00 |
| 09-12 20:53 | Will Andris Kulbergs be the next Prime Minister of Latvia? | BUY | 0.74 | $211.88 |
| 09-12 20:34 | Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.00 |
| 09-12 20:26 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.63 | $63.00 |
| 09-12 16:05 | Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | SELL | 0.9 | $24.61 |
| 09-12 16:00 | Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? | SELL | 0.9232941176 | $78.48 |
| 09-12 12:16 | Will "Bass Persuades" - Miley Cyrus first week album sales be between 50k and 60k? | BUY | 0.86 | $70.52 |
| 09-12 12:12 | Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7 | $140.00 |
| 09-12 12:08 | Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? | BUY | 0.68 | $78.20 |
| 09-12 12:05 | Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware? | BUY | 0.87 | $27.87 |
| 09-12 11:56 | Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.49%? | SELL | 0.778 | $18.21 |
| 09-12 11:49 | Will SDA win the most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 09-12 11:48 | Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election? | BUY | 0.79 | $36.65 |
| 09-12 11:39 | Will Jérôme Guedj finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary? | BUY | 0.91 | $91.00 |