crastsa
0x3b8bb510a4b02a05df5f4d32cffee1fb8277a7c8
- Realised P&L
- $-27.00
- Volume
- $106.2k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $317.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.945 | 0.958 | $199.16 | +$2.52 |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.988 | 0.982 | $49.10 | −$0.30 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.719 | 0.345 | $29.44 | −$31.90 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.898 | 0.935 | $24.31 | +$0.96 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? · Yes | 0.779 | 0.766 | $15.33 | −$0.25 |
| Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.001 | $0.07 | −$0.95 |
| Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.20 |
| Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.00at 0.820Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?
- +$12.60at 0.200Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
- +$11.07at 0.786Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
- +$10.56at 0.950Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?
- +$9.85at 0.889Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 02:25 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $96.20 |
| 09-11 02:24 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.988 | $49.40 |
| 09-11 02:24 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.779 | $15.58 |
| 09-11 02:22 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8980769231 | $23.35 |
| 09-11 02:22 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7187883759 | $61.34 |
| 08-11 03:37 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $35.20 |
| 08-11 03:36 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $31.50 |
| 06-18 09:47 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.7793333333 | $116.90 |
| 06-18 09:46 | Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.007 | $17.52 |
| 06-10 09:36 | Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.008 | $20.02 |
| 06-10 09:34 | Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.006 | $28.47 |
| 05-28 03:11 | Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.007 | $34.24 |
| 05-28 03:08 | Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $99.30 |
| 04-17 10:30 | Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $104.64 |
| 04-05 03:26 | Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | SELL | 0.002 | $10.68 |